Everyone has their own methodology for picking games -- especially in the World Series, where bragging rights are elevated. Some do careful research and thinking, some take things more seriously, relying on the flip of a coin or the feel of their gut. Turns out, the best method right now is none of the above.
Rather, the best method this October seems to be following Strat-O-Matic's simulations.
Through the first three games of the 2016 World Series between the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians, Strat-O-Matic is a perfect three-for-three in picking winners. What's more is they've gotten eerily close on nailing the score and other pertinent details. Let's run down some of the most impressive aspects of Strat-O-Matic's simulations:
- Strat correctly predicted Indians shutouts in Games 1 and 3.
- Strat correctly predicted Trevor Bauer would pitch 3 2/3 innings in Game 2.
- Also in Game 2, Strat correctly predicted Kyle Schwarber would have a big game -- he drove in a pair of runs, a few short of the simulation's projected total, but still.
- Strat correctly predicted a 1-0 Indians win in Game 3, with the lone run being scored late. Granted, the exact details were imprecise -- Strat had the Indians scoring in the eighth against Aroldis Chapman.
- All total, Strat has predicted the teams would combine for 18 runs, 43 hits, and two errors -- there have been 13 runs, 43 hits, and three errors.
Perfect? Nah. But no simulation is going to hit on everything. The fact is Strat-O-Matic's simulations have been more on the money than not, and that's pretty neat -- for the game's designers, but also for those of us who like to think baseball's mysteries can be solved or captured, in some small way, through smart design. Oh, plus some luck; always some luck.
For those wondering, Strat-O-Matic's full series simulations can be found here. Strat has the Indians winning an extra-innings thriller in Game 4, then going on to win the World Series in six. We'll see if both strong Octobers can continue.
