I really need to learn to stop tempting fate. In yesterday's newsletter, I told you about how I was still buzzing about the Bears drafting Justin Fields, and I wrote about how I wanted the Packers to trade Aaron Rodgers for his happiness with my tongue planted firmly in my cheek.
Then the White Sox announced Luis Robert would be out for three to four months (more on what it means from a gambling perspective down below), and all the fun got sucked out of the room for me. So I've learned an important lesson here: enjoy the good that happens to teams you care about, but don't mock the bad that's happening to others, because fate is always waiting around the corner, ready to hit you in the face with a frying pan.
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Maybe the White Sox can trade for Aaron Rodgers and have him play centerfield?
Anyway, let's catch up on your daily reading.
- Post-draft NFL Power Rankings from Power Pete Prisco.
- What? You didn't think Ryan Wilson would already have a 2022 mock draft ready?
- Jimmy G has spoken about the Trey Lance pick.
- Jose Mourinho already has a new job.
Ok, so let's hope tonight's picks are all winners, and nobody gets hurt.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Orioles at Mariners, 10:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Mariners (-130): Who wants to stay up late and watch a couple of bad baseball teams with me? OK, to be fair, the Mariners are 16-14, while the Orioles are 14-15, but those records are slightly misleading and unlikely to hold up throughout the season. I do think the Mariners are the better of these two, and there is some excess value on them at this price.
Neither of these offenses is very good, but Baltimore has been especially terrible against righties like Seattle starter Justin Dunn. Baltimore's offense ranks 30th (that's last) in wOBA against righties, and it's tied for 26th in wRC+ against them. Its HR rate of 2.55% ranks 23rd. Furthermore, Seattle's bullpen has an ERA of 2.48, which is currently the best mark in baseball. It's that Seattle bullpen that has kept this team afloat, and I think it comes in handy tonight as well, helping finish off a win over Baltimore.
Key Trend: Seattle is 13-4 following its last 17 losses.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Sportsline expert John Bollman is 20-11 in his last 31 money line plays involving the Mariners, and he's got a money line play for tonight's game too.
💰 The Picks
Mets at Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Cardinals (+183) -- Don't worry, everybody; Jacob deGrom is starting tonight, and I'm here to remind you about #OperationFadeGrom. You don't have to worry about that absolute psycho Chris Bengel showing up and telling you to bet on the Mets on a night deGrom is pitching. Some people just want to see the world burn.
Anyway, you know the drill by now. When deGrom pitches, we bet against the Mets because even though deGrom is incredible, the Mets seem to hate him with the fire of a thousand suns and refuse to play well behind him. Poor Jacob enters tonight's start with an ERA of 1.75 and has struck out 41.7% of hitters he's faced. That's nuts!
What's crazier is that the Mets are somehow only 2-3 in his starts this season. This is nothing new, as the Mets are only 38-42 in deGrom's starts since 2018. That might not seem great to you, but keep in mind the Mets are always favored when he starts. The return on #OperationFadeGrom since 2018 has been roughly 23 units.
Key Trend: The Mets are only 38-42 in deGrom starts since 2018.
⚽ Champions League
Chelsea vs. Real Madrid, Wednesday, 3 p.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network/Paramount+
The Pick: Chelsea (+115) -- The first match might have finished in a 1-1 draw, but it was a misleading 1-1 draw. Karim Benzema's goal was the kind of goal that few people who aren't Karim Benzema are capable of scoring, but he did. Overall, however, Madrid's attack was impotent and couldn't find a way to break through Chelsea's defending. Madrid got nine shots off, but Benzema's goal was the only one on target. Chelsea put five of its 11 shots on goal, explaining the difference in expected goals, as Chelsea won that battle 1.4-0.3.
Chelsea were the better team in nearly every area in the first match, and I don't think much will change Wednesday. It would help Madrid to get both Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane back for this match, but what kind of condition will the 35-year old Ramos be in after missing all of April with a calf injury and COVID, and Varane remains a question mark as well? I took the under in the first match, and while I don't hate it here, I think more urgency could lead to more goals being scored. It's just, unfortunately for Real Madrid, I see Chelsea scoring on them a lot more often.
Key Trend: Chelsea has won nine of its last 13 matches.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Uncanny golf handicapper Rick Gehman releases his best bets for this week's Wells Fargo Championship at Charlotte's Quail Hollow.
💸 The DFS Rundown
PG: LaMelo Ball, Hornets
SG: Andrew Wiggins, Warriors
SF: Kevin Durant, Nets
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
C: Bam Adebayo, Heat
PG: Delon Wright, Kings
SG: Hamidou Diallo, Pistons
SF: Cedi Osman, Cavs
PF: Marvin Bagley, Kings
C: Kevon Looney, Warriors
Full lineup advice
Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.
⚾ MLB Crystal Ball
The Pick: Kansas City Royals to win AL Central (+425) -- I don't think anybody would have had the Royals in first place in the Central come the first week of May, but here we are. Clearly, given the odds listed, there aren't many who expect this to still be the case come the end of the season. I don't think it's likely, either, but at +425, it only needs to happen 19% of the time for us to make money. And I think that's possible!
We have futures out on the Twins to win the division, and even though they're currently 11-16, they still might. But I don't think the problems Minnesota has had to start the season are flukey, either, and there's no guarantee they'll make a significant improvement.
Then there's the White Sox, who lost Eloy Jimenez before the season began. On Monday, the Sox lost another young superstar in Luis Robert for at least three months, and more likely four. In other words, the team will be without two of the biggest bats in its lineup until late August at the earliest. This division suddenly looks a lot more winnable for Kansas City, and it might not need any more than 84 wins to get there.