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USATSI

The Mets didn't feel like a true contender for much of the 2019 season, but they ended up finishing just three games out of the second NL wild card spot. They've carried a good portion of their roster over to 2020 and appear to be in good shape, too, even after losing Zack Wheeler to free agency and Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery. The Mets will attempt to mitigate those losses with free agent signees Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. Both have pitched like aces in the past, but it appears their best days are behind them. New pitching coach Jeremy Hefner will be tasked with helping each get back to better versions of themselves. 

The Mets' offseason also consisted of hiring and then firing Carlos Beltran amid the Astros' sign-stealing scandal. Luis Rojas is now at the helm after two seasons with the Mets' Double-A affiliate and last year as the quality control coach with the big-league club. 

The Mets have the look of a contender. In a season like this, that could mean a bad stretch keeps them from the playoffs or getting hot at the right time has them back in the World Series. Let's dive in. 

Win total projection, odds

  • 2020 Sportsline projection: 31-29
  • World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): 18/1
  • 2019 record: 86-76

Projected lineup

  1. Brandon Nimmo, CF
  2. Jeff McNeil, 3B
  3. Pete Alonso, 1B
  4. Michael Conforto, RF
  5. Yoenis Cespedes, DH
  6. Robinson Cano, 2B
  7. J.D. Davis, LF
  8. Wilson Ramos, C
  9. Amed Rosario, SS

Bench: C Tomas Nido, IF Luis Guillorme, IF/OF Dominic Smith, IF Jed Lowrie, OF Jake Marisnick

The Mets were seventh in the NL in runs, fifth in average, sixth in OBP, sixth in slugging and fifth in homers last year. They were spurred by rookie sensation Alonso along with big-time breakthroughs from Davis and McNeil. If they are to prove to be a good offensive team this season, it's imperative that those three carry over with successful follow-ups instead of backslides. 

Projected rotation

  1. Jacob deGrom, RHP
  2. Marcus Stroman, RHP
  3. Steven Matz, LHP
  4. Rick Porcello, RHP
  5. Michael Wacha, RHP

DeGrom shoots for his third straight Cy Young and is my pick for the best pitcher in baseball, at present. Behind him there are questions. We get to those in a second. 

Projected bullpen

The addition of Betances here really helps bolster the back-end of the bullpen, but Diaz was an absolute disaster last season. Is he salvageable? 

Here are four storylines to watch as the Mets navigate a 60-game slate.

Cespedes and Cano

It was admittedly aggressive of me to put Cespedes in the five-hole in the projected lineup above. A slew of injuries has significantly held him back for years. He managed 132 games in 2016, which was followed by 81, 38 and zero in the three respective seasons to follow. The last we heard, though, the Mets were optimistic that he'd be a go this season. We know if he does play and is healthy, he can be a game-changer. He's also 34 and could be rusty. 

Speaking of age, Cano is now 37. Did he hit his wall last year? In his five years in Seattle, Cano hit .296/.353/.472 (129 OPS+). Last year for the Mets, Cano hit .256/.307/.428 (96 OPS+). That's worrisome. He did deal with two injured list stints in the first half, however, and hit .298/.350/.511 in his last 50 games. 

If Cespedes and Cano hit like we've seen in the past, the Mets have a shot at a damn good offense. The short season benefits them in that they will have an easier time holding up against age-related fatigue. 

The rotation behind deGrom

As noted, the best pitcher in baseball fronts the rotation. But ...

  • Stroman is really fun to watch and a favorite of this writer, but he's also shown inconsistency through his career. He was an All-Star last year but had a 5.54 ERA in 2018. 
  • Matz has been mediocre the past two seasons (combined 4.09 ERA, 95 ERA+).
  • Porcello won the 2016 Cy Young, but followed it up with two mediocre seasons and had a 5.52 ERA in 32 starts last year. 
  • Wacha is a former All-Star who once pitched as a postseason ace for the Cardinals. His last four seasons? 4.39 ERA, 94 ERA+. 

The ace isn't a question, but the other four sure are. The high-end outcome here is two aces (Stroman joining deGrom) with three pretty good pitchers. The low end is an ace, an inconsistent mid-rotation type (Stroman again) and three bad starters. 

Can Diaz bounce back?

I have no idea what happened to Cano and Diaz on the flight from Seattle to New York but man, it was bad. Diaz went from perhaps the best reliever in baseball at age 24 to a total catastrophe at age 25. It was one of the more inexplicable things to witness in 2019, though we always know the most volatile players in baseball are relievers. No position has a greater year-to-year variance (ask Blake Treinen). In looking through the stats we have at our disposal, there really isn't anything that sticks out to show why Diaz was so unsuccessful in 2019, which leads me to believe it was a total fluke that impacted Diaz mentally. His velocity wasn't down (in fact, it went up), he was still missing bats at a ridiculously high rate and though he did walk more hitters, it wasn't excessive control issues that derailed him. 

Want an easy bet? Diaz in the mix for Comeback Player of the Year. If the Mets have a big year, Cano and/or Cespedes could be in competition with him for it. 

The young bats

Alonso was one of the best hitters in baseball last year as a rookie. Sophomore slump or no? 

McNeil was never a highly touted prospect, but he's hit at every single level. He wasn't a huge power hitter, though, boasting a career .442 slugging percentage in the minors. He hit .318/.384/.531 with 23 homers in 133 games last year. Was the power surge real? 

It might be a stretch to call the 27-year-old Davis young, baseball-wise, but last year was his first with regular playing time and he busted out with a .307/.369/.527 slash line in 453 plate appearances. In 66 previous games, he hit just .194/.260/.321. Was his surge real? 

Rosario hit .287/.323/.432, making big gains in his second full MLB season. Can he keep building on that? 

If these questions are all answered in the positive, that's a pretty stellar Mets' offense. If not, that's too much burden on the old guard, Nimmo and Conforto.