The Miami Marlins will look for their first series win in a month when they take on the New York Mets in a National League East matchup on Thursday. The Marlins (46-62), who have won five of eight games against New York this season, last won a series July 5-8, winning three of four against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets (56-51), who have lost three of four, have also not won a series in a while. New York took two of three from Toronto July 23-25. The Mets will be without closer Edwin Diaz, who was placed on the paternity list on Wednesday.
The game from loanDepot Park in Miami is slated to begin at 12:10 p.m. ET. Pitching continues to be the strength of each team. The Marlins have the fourth-best team ERA in MLB at 3.53, while the Mets are eighth at 3.68. New York is a -130 favorite (risk $130 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Mets vs. Marlins odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total runs scored is eight. Before making any Marlins vs. Mets picks, make sure to check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
This model, which simulates every pitch of every game 10,000 times, is a profitable 140-113 on top-rated MLB picks through 18 weeks in the 2021 season. It also had a banner 2019 season, the league's last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line picks. Anyone following it has seen some huge returns.
Now, the model has dialed in on Mets vs. Marlins and revealed its predictions and best bets. You can visit SportsLine now to see its MLB picks. Here are the MLB odds and betting trends for Marlins vs. Mets:
- Mets vs. Marlins money line: New York Mets -130, Miami +120
- Mets vs. Marlins run line: New York Mets -1.5 (+120)
- Mets vs. Marlins over-under: 8 runs
- NYM: The Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
- MIA: The under is 4-1-1 in the Marlins' last six home games vs. a left-handed starter
Why you should back the Mets
Outfielder Brandon Nimmo has had a solid season for New York and is hitting .292 with two homers, 15 RBIs and 26 runs scored in 50 games. He has hits in nine of his last 13 games, including a pair of 2-for-4 performances. In six games against the Marlins this season, he is hitting .353 with three doubles. In 56 career games against them, he is batting .244 with nine doubles, two triples, four homers and 15 RBIs.
Infielder Dominic Smith enters the game with a seven-game hitting streak. He is 4-for-11 in the series with a double and a pair of RBIs. He has more than held his own against Marlins pitching. In nine games this season, Smith is hitting .276 with a double and four RBIs. In 43 career matchups against Miami, he is hitting .256 with eight doubles, three homers and 18 RBIs.
Why you should back the Marlins
Miami is expected to send All-Star left-hander Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.45 ERA) to the mound. Rogers has not allowed more than three runs in any outing, but has not gotten a win since June 10 against Colorado. In his last start, Rogers allowed two earned runs on five hits in 3 2/3 innings in Miami's 4-2 loss to the New York Yankees. In 18 games this season, he has allowed two or fewer runs in a start.
First baseman Jesus Aguilar has had a solid season and has hits in eight of 11 games, including three multi-hit performances. For the year, Aguilar is batting .266 with 19 homers, 76 RBIs and 37 runs scored. He has hit Mets pitching well throughout his career. In 35 games, he is batting .292 with nine doubles, one triple, four homers and 19 RBIs.
How to make Mets vs. Marlins picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the run total, as the simulation projects the teams to combine for 8.5 runs. It also says one side of the money line has the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Mets vs. Marlins? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mets vs. Marlins spread to jump on Thursday, all from the advanced model that has been profitable on MLB picks in 2021, and find out.