Mets vs. Nationals odds, line: MLB picks, May 23 predictions for Stephen Strasburg vs. Steven Matz

The Washington Nationals look to avoid being swept by the New York Mets in a four-game series when they meet Thursday afternoon. The Nationals (19-30) have fallen nine games behind first-place Philadelphia in the NL East and trail the Mets (23-25), third in the division, by 4.5 games. First pitch from Citi Field in New York is set for 12:10 p.m. ET. The Mets have won seven of 12 against the Nationals this season. The latest Nationals vs. Mets odds show Washington favored at -143 on the money line (risk $143 to win $100), while the over-under for total runs scored is 7.5. Before making any Nationals vs. Mets picks of your own, be sure to see the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is off to a profitable start on its top-rated MLB picks in 2019. It also entered Week 9 on a strong 12-5 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Anybody who has been following it is in the black.

Now the model has dialed in on Nationals vs. Mets. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The Nationals send their ace to the mound, right-hander Stephen Strasburg (4-3, 3.32 ERA). Since April 16, he has been nearly untouchable, striking out 62 batters, issuing just nine walks, and limiting opposing batters to a .189 batting average. He's also 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two starts against the Mets this year.

Offensively, the Nationals have been led by outfielder Adam Eaton. He homered on Wednesday night and had a pair of two-hit games against the Chicago Cubs last weekend. Left fielder Juan Soto has a six-game hitting streak, raising his average 25 points in the process. He is 9-for-23 (.391) during the streak, which includes four doubles, a home run and six RBIs.

But just because Washington's offense has been heating up does not mean it's the best value on the Mets vs. Nationals money line.

That's because New York has been a tough out at home, winning six straight at Citi Field and eight of the last 10. Left-hander Steven Matz (3-3, 3.96 ERA) gets the start. He returned from the Injured List on Saturday, going 3 2/3 innings, allowing five hits, two earned runs, two walks and six strikeouts in a 2-0 loss to Miami. 

The Mets also have a statistical edge over the Nationals in a number of key pitching categories, including WHIP (1.34 to 1.39), ERA (4.49 to 4.90), opponent's batting average (.250 to .254) and walks allowed (165 to 172).

Third baseman J.D. Davis (.282) has hits in six of the last eight games. For the season, he has five home runs, including three against Washington. He hit one on Tuesday against the Nationals and two on April 6 when he went 3-for-3 with a walk. First baseman Pete Alonso (.254) is 11-for-43 against the Nationals this season, including five doubles, four home runs and nine RBIs.

So who wins Mets vs. Nationals? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nationals vs. Mets money line you should be all over Thursday, all from the advanced model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.

Our Latest Stories