MLB picks, best baseball bets for Friday, including Phillies vs. Brewers and future play for NL Cy Young

Let's grab two team totals and a fun HR prop in the World Series rematch

It is a Friday and if you can see the Matt Snyder byline here on CBS Sports, that means it's time for another installment of picks, or, as I like to call this little exercise, Friday Night lines. 

I'm here to wish you another very happy Friday, as we're following up a 2-1 week here in bets -- meaning we're 4-1 in the last two weeks -- and looking to keep the good times rolling. This time around we'll focus on two team totals before a fun home run play and then a future on an award. 

The lines are from Fanduel for this Friday.

Cubs over 4.5 runs (-118)

The Cubs are one of the best offensive teams in baseball. We don't need to couch that with stuff like "so far" or anything because we've got a 56-game sample that says they are elite. They also hit lefties better than righties (11 points better batting average and 50 points of OPS). Reds lefty Andrew Abbott gets the ball here. 

Yes, he held the Cubs to just one run in 5⅔ innings last time he saw them, but that was less than a week ago. With the turnaround being this quick and the Cubs having more familiarity with him, this time getting him at home in good hitter's weather, the best bet is that things will turn south for him at some point this time around. Plus, the Cubs torched the Reds' bullpen all last weekend. 

If you're looking for individual props, righties generally hit Abbott better and Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson have both been hot. The wind appears it'll be blowing out to right field, though, and it's easy to love Kyle Tucker or Pete Crow-Armstrong. 

Phillies over 4.5 runs (-142)

[NOTE: The Brewers changed pitchers and are going with lefty D.L. Hall, but we already played this total and we're going to leave it]

Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester can see things go poorly for him at times. He had a stretch earlier this season where he allowed 14 runs on 18 hits and 11 walks in 13⅓ innings. He's been pretty good since then by ERA, but I suspect it was built with smoke and mirrors and against some sub-par offenses, the Orioles and Pirates among them. 

The Phillies at home are a different animal and the righty Priester can be touched up by lefties. Enter Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. 

Also, the Brewers' bullpen isn't quite as vaunted as in years past. It enters Friday with a 4.55 ERA, sitting 22nd among bullpens in the majors. 

Home run play: Cody Bellinger returns (+450)

Yankees at Dodgers is the most fun series this weekend. It features a rematch of the World Series that ended too soon after that Game 5 choke job by the Bronx Bombers. It also features two first-place teams that could well make it back to the Fall Classic. As such, I wanted to grab something from this game and, sure enough, opportunity has presented itself. 

Yankees vs. Dodgers in World Series rematch: Four things to know, prediction for weekend series in L.A.

Mike Axisa

So far this season, Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has given up three home runs in two starts (10 innings) in Dodger Stadium and has been touched up pretty well by lefties. Who hits left-handed for the Yankees and is familiar with Dodger Stadium? Well, I already gave it away in the sub-head, so I apologize for the spoiler and poor setup here. 

Bellinger has a career .505 slugging percentage (it's .482 overall) in Dodger Stadium with 82 of his career 204 homers there. Also, he's been hot. In the last month, Bellinger has hit .323/.396/.602 with six homers in 93 at-bats. He's been hitting behind Aaron Judge, which means there's always a good chance he's hitting with a runner on base and will be facing a pitcher who doesn't want to walk him. I love this play. 

Futures play: Zack Wheeler to win NL Cy Young (+480)

Wheeler on Thursday night allowed six runs in 5⅓ innings. He even walked four, which is totally uncharacteristic. Anyone who has followed his career knows he's going to bounce back. Even better, this presents us with an opportunity. 

I had Wheeler as my preseason pick to win the NL Cy Young this season. He's the third pitcher listed in Cy Young odds for the National League right now, behind Paul Skenes and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Both of them would finish above Wheeler in voting right now, I believe. 

I also think there's a very good opening here to grab Wheeler at these odds. 

Think about how things will look down the stretch in Pittsburgh. The Pirates will have every reason to limit Skenes' workload and even shut him down if he feels anything even resembling an injury. He's already at 75⅓ innings pitched after 133 in the majors last year, in addition to 27⅓ in Triple-A -- so call it 160ish total. The Pirates probably don't want him going over 185, but I'm also sure they'd love an excuse to keep him around 170. 

Yamamoto right now has thrown 64 innings. The Dodgers have had a small village of starting pitchers on the injured list all season, but their main goal is to have everyone firing on all cylinders come October and through October so they can repeat as champs. They'll be "creative" with the injured list in August if they feel like it'll help them win the World Series. I think Yamamoto gets held back in terms of innings. 

Wheeler, though, pitched 200 innings last season, 192 in 2023 and topped out at 213⅓ back in 2021. It's an old-school organization in dealing with starting pitchers and they'll let Wheeler work over 200 innings, probably even in the 210 range. 

If things like ERA, WHIP and strikeouts are relatively even, and I expect them to be, Wheeler's workload carries him over the line against Yamamoto and Skenes. The time to strike is now.