MLB trade deadline: Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy could be great change-of-scenery targets
For the good of their careers, two Orioles starters should want to be traded
By
Matt Snyder
•
4 min read
The Orioles are the worst team in baseball, have already traded their best player and are very likely to part with more veterans here in the next week as we get closer to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
Among the names that might be intriguing yet don't look too enticing would be starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy. They're often linked, and it's easy to see why. The Orioles took them both No. 4 overall in the draft in back-to-back years (Bundy out of high school in 2011 and Gausman out of college in 2012) with the plan of it being their 1-2 punch for years.
We've seen flashes of good from both and a few of brilliance from Bundy. Still, here's where we are with two fourth-overall draft picks.
Gausman career: 38-51, 4.23 ERA, 99 ERA+, 1.34 WHIP, 4.16 FIP, 8.2 K/9
Gausman 2018: 4-8, 4.54 ERA, 91 ERA+, 1.37 WHIP, 4.59 FIP, 7.6 K/9
Bundy career: 29-24, 4.25 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.28 WHIP, 4.61 FIP, 8.6 K/9
Bundy 2018: 6-9, 4.57 ERA, 90 ERA+, 1.30 WHIP, 4.86 FIP, 9.6 K/9
There are some acceptable seasons in there, and Bundy is still only 25 with 61 career starts (compared to a 27-year-old Gausman's 126 career starts), but the expectation of a starting pitcher taken No. 4 overall pick is to be at the front of the rotation. Neither has really gotten close to that for an extended stretch.
Might there be untapped potential that won't be found in Baltimore but will elsewhere?
We've seen it before. Jake Arrieta is the big example, but Jason Hammel, Alfredo Simon, Wade Miley, Yovani Gallardo and even Ubaldo Jimenez (though I'm skeptical the Orioles were the issue here) were all better to much better when not with Baltimore under this current Orioles' structure. Andrew Cashner and especially Alex Cobb have miserably regressed in 2018, their first season in Baltimore, too.
It should be noted here that while this is a bit of an indictment on how the Orioles develop their in-house starting pitchers and work with new acquisitions, there are other factors in play. Oriole Park at Camden Yards is fickle year by year, but park factors suggest it can play extremely hitter-friendly (such as in 2012 and 2015) but rarely swings worse than slightly below-average.
Further, the Orioles are in the American League, which has to deal with the DH and is pretty well known to be tougher on pitchers. Not only that, they are in the AL East, which has a few hitter-friendly ballparks and generally has some juggernaut offenses, like the Red Sox and Yankees most years -- not to mention the Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson Blue Jays.
Basically, considering all the circumstances that could be conspiring against Gausman and/or Bundy, wouldn't a change of scenery help, specifically if it were to an NL team, an overly pitcher-friendly ballpark or both?
Bundy has always had the stuff, but he's getting hit a lot harder this season and giving up home runs at his highest rate ever. Perhaps a fresh look from a better-equipped front office would be just what the doctor ordered. I can't help but look back at Charlie Morton's comments on what turned around his career and wonder if it fits with Bundy and/or Gausman.
Bundy is using his fastball less, so maybe he should use that more and work on location instead, a la Morton. Again, some of the smarter front offices could likely find a way to help him, along with the change-in-scenery bump.
Still, I don't think the Orioles deal Bundy unless they are totally knocked over with an offer. He's still 25 and doesn't hit free agency until after the 2021 season.
Gausman is two years older than Bundy and hits free agency after 2020. The Orioles won't be ready to compete by then, so he's an obvious name to go.
Something interesting on Gausman is that he entered Tuesday tied for 20th in the majors in groundball percentage. It's not extreme, but it's around the top 25 percent of baseball. The Orioles, meantime, rank dead last in baseball in defensive efficiency (the number of balls put in play converted into outs).
How much simply moving from an atrocious defensive team to a good one would help him in and of itself? It's not like he's gotten pounded -- despite a high total of hits allowed -- as he ranks 59th out of 79 qualifying starters in hard-hit percentage (Fangraphs).
From there, much like with Bundy, a change of scenery and perhaps approach would likely benefit Gausman. He has the raw stuff.
Given the criteria and looking at contenders in need, some teams that make sense for Gausman (and Bundy, if I'm wrong) would be the A's, Mariners, Cubs, Brewers, Nationals, Braves, Phillies and, yes, the red-hot Pirates. The Indians play in a hitter-friendly park, but it's possible they'd think they could fix one of these guys.
On the latter point, that's the main reason a guy like Gausman would grab interest right now. Many teams will think they can fix him. If they do, he has the potential to be a quality big-league starter the rest of this season and, moving forward, who knows?
Gausman doesn't look like a sexy name ahead of the deadline. Neither would Bundy, if he's available. But these two could be needle-moving additions, should they land in the right spot.
