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USATSI

First off, thank you for this, Mookie Betts

While it caused me to lose on the under 7.5 bet, that was going down anyway once the Dodgers' offense blew up in the middle innings. Hitting on the bonus of Betts homering at +300 more than made up for that and the Dodgers winning the game meant I ran my record on the normal bets to 19-16 and we've now hit on five bonus picks. I'll take that any day, especially when we're always picking on underdog odds (meaning breaking even would equal winning money). 

Let's get back on the proverbial horse here for Game 2 of the World Series.

SERIES/GAMEAWAYHOMETIME (ET)TVO/U

World Series Game 2

Tampa Bay +125

L.A. Dodgers -135 (-1.5)

8 p.m.

Fox

8

All lines via William Hill Sportsbook

Rays to win +125

In Game 1, we saw an illustration of just how much better the Dodgers are than the Rays, in my opinion. I picked the Dodgers to win in five and saw nothing there to change my mind. Unless I wanted to call for a sweep instead. I still think the Rays are going to get one game, though, so we'll pick this one. 

The Dodgers starter is Tony Gonsolin. He was very good in the regular season for the most part, but he gave up four runs in six innings to the Angels in his final start. Then in two outings against the Braves in the NLCS, he gave up seven runs in 6 1/3 innings. He's walking too many, isn't missing a ton of bats and has been prone to the longball here recently. He hasn't had a good outing in over a month. The Rays are better against right-handed starters than lefties, too. I like them to hit him early. 

On the Rays' side, lefty Blake Snell and his somewhat funky motion are on the hill. Other than Mookie Betts (Red Sox days), the Dodgers players haven't really seen him. That's a tough arm slot angle to pick up if you haven't seen him before and he's coming off two ALCS outings where he overall looked very good (his two runs allowed in the second outing were after he left the game). I'll say Snell throws the ball well two times through the order and then Kevin Cash goes to his big guns in relief (Diego Castillo, Peter Fairbanks, Nick Anderson and, if needed, John Curtiss) to close this one down. 

Over 8 runs

I have a feeling the over/unders are going to be no fun at all in this series. Both teams generally pitch well and play good defense. Both can get homer-happy. The ballpark is pitcher-friendly, but it's seen plenty of offensive explosions here in the playoffs. There have also been plenty of low-scoring duels. Lovely, right? As we found out last night when the Dodgers' offense went nuts, 7.5 or eight runs are pretty low numbers. I might think about the under if it was 9.5 or something, but if the Rays knock Gonsolin around early, it's going to be awfully easy to get to eight runs. I don't have a strong conviction either way on this one, but we're going over. Rays win, 6-3.  

Bonus: Ji-Man Choi homers +350

I was really tempted to go with Randy Arozarena at +450, but the way the Dodgers worked him in Game 1 gives me pause. If they stay away from him early in the count and only attack with breaking balls down in the zone, it'll be awfully tough for him to get into one. We'll instead go with Choi against a righty. He hits them better than southpaws. Some of his profile lends itself to a deep count homer, too. Choi feasts on breaking stuff while struggling against high-velocity heat. Gonsolin is fastball heavy, but he's mid-90s instead of a true 2020 fireballer. His out pitch is the slider and I think Choi can handle it. He's the pick and it'll be even more of a feel-good bonus if he does it on a slider.