A pair of National League playoff contenders square off on Sunday Night Baseball when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Chicago Cubs at historic Wrigley Field. The winner of this game also wins the series, and Philly sends Aaron Nola to the mound while the Cubs counter with Jameson Taillon. The Cubs are off to a 17-11 start, while the Phillies are 14-13 after a recent skid.
The Cubs are -119 favorites (bet $119 to win $100) on the money line, while the Phillies aren't far behind at -101, according to the latest SportsLine consensus odds.
Angelo Magliocca, a regular contributor to The Early Edge and CBS Sports HQ, is a seasoned MLB handicapper up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons. He's put together a three-leg parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday Night Baseball, with one of the legs relying on a Phillies infielder who's off to a great start at the plate this year. You can view all expert picks for Phillies-Cubs, as well as other MLB games, only at SportsLine.
Phillies vs. Cubs SGP (+275 on DraftKings)
- Total Under 9
- Cubs +1.5 runs
- Bryson Stott 1+ hits
It's the rubber match of a three-game series tonight at Wrigley, as the Phillies look to keep the momentum going from yesterday's victory, which snapped a five-game skid. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 6-4 over their last 10 games and are already building a sizable lead over their competition in the NL Central, jumping out to a 17-11 record. The win yesterday was the first for Philly in a week, which has to feel like a huge relief. I would not be surprised if we start to see the Phillies start to roll again as they host the Nationals and Diamondbacks at home this week.
The Phillies need to get out of Chicago first with a win, and a lot has been made about Aaron Nola's struggles thus far. He's pitched to a 6.43 ERA and 0-5 record, but I'm not convinced he's this bad, even if I do worry about some of the underlying metrics and velocity numbers being down over previous years. Last time out, Nola looked to have righted the ship as he spun a quality start against the Mets before going back out for the seventh inning and allowing three more runs. If that seventh inning didn't happen, his ERA, WHIP and other numbers start to look better. And if we take out a nightmare four-run first inning in his previous start, Nola had actually put together almost 10 innings of solid baseball. It sounds terrible to think about things like that for a former ace, but I'm looking for any signs of life here, and I think I'm seeing it with Nola. One of his issues has been home runs allowed, but it should be chilly with the wind blowing in tonight, making Wrigley Field a potential pitcher's haven. That may be just what Nola needs to keep the ball in the yard.
We'll take the Under nine runs on the game total. With the weather and both bullpens having their top arms available, I have this one projecting close to eight runs, giving us solid value on the Under.
To go along with the Under, I have the Cubs winning this one closer to 58% of the time, implying we have about 20 cents of value on the Cubs' money line, currently. Since this is a parlay and I expect a low-scoring affair, I'll take the Cubs +1.5 runs where even a close one-run loss would result in a win for us.
Since a first start blowup where he allowed six runs in fewer than five innings, Jameson Taillon has been a solid starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs. Pitching to a 3.22 ERA in April with a .193 opponent batting average, Taillon has been one of the more serviceable starters for the Cubs. Facing a Phillies offense that works counts and walks a good bit against right-handers will not be easy, and I contemplated going with the Over 1.5 walks here. Instead, I am playing Bryson Stott to record a hit. If you want to pivot and change things up, more power to you, but I am playing Stott on the hit+run+RBI prop, so I'll include the hit here. Stott was hitless against Taillon last year in three at-bats, but he picked up a couple base knocks off him the year prior in a short sample size, and he's been steaming hot of late. Stott is batting .312 in April and has hit safely in 16 of his 19 starts. Plus, his batting average clears .300 when at the top of the lineup, with an OPS over .800 in those 17 games. He'll be afforded the highest projected total of at-bats, and I have a feeling Taillon will not continue to stifle lefties, who he's pitched to a .183 batting average against compared to .254 and .266 batting averages to lefties the previous two seasons. Stott can help with that regression.
