MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
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On Sunday, the Philadelphia Phillies will meet the New York Mets for the 19th and final time during the 2021 season. The Phillies and Mets will face off on Sunday Night Baseball in front of a national audience, and the stakes are high. Philadelphia is currently in the No. 2 spot behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East, with New York also trying to catch Atlanta in the pecking order. 

First pitch is at 7:08 p.m. ET in New York. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Mets as a -125 favorite on the money line, while the over-under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 8.5 in the latest Phillies vs. Mets odds. Before you make any Mets vs. Phillies picks, check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is 185-158 on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 24 weeks in the 2021 season, returning over $400. It also had a banner 2019 season, the league's last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line MLB picks. Anyone following it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in its Phillies vs. Mets picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see its MLB picks. Here are the MLB odds today and betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies:

  • Phillies vs. Mets money line: Mets -125, Phillies +115
  • Phillies vs. Mets over-under: 8.5 runs
  • Phillies vs. Mets run line: Mets -1.5 (+160)
  • PHI: The Phillies are 4-5 in games started by Kyle Gibson
  • NYM: The Mets are 4-6 in games started by Rich Hill
Featured Game | New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Why you should back the Phillies

Philadelphia sends veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson to the hill on Sunday, and the Phillies can be confident in that choice. Gibson has posted a 3.49 ERA across 165 innings this season, providing valuable durability for Philadelphia and also producing effective run prevention. Gibson has allowed only 0.76 home runs per 9 innings and, with a varied arsenal of offerings, he is generating a 51.7 percent groundball rate that is impressive. Gibson is particularly dominant against right-handed hitters, holding opponents to just a .207 batting average and a .290 slugging percentage from the right side in 2021. 

From a matchup perspective, Gibson has only one start against New York this season, but he finished six innings and allowed only a single earned run. The Mets have struggled offensively throughout the season, scoring fewer than 600 total runs, and Gibson should have the upper hand.

Why you should back the Mets

New York is installed as the favorite in part due to their success at home when compared to Philadelphia's relative struggles on the road. Beyond that obvious advantage, the Mets have a very strong starting pitcher in Rich Hill. The 41-year-old elder statesman has a sparkling 2.12 ERA in September and, for the season, Hill's 3.88 ERA over 144 innings is significantly better than the league average. He has stellar control, walking fewer than three batters per nine innings, and left-handed hitters have a paltry .184 batting average against him. 

Offensively, the Mets haven't been spectacular in 2021, but they do have a juicy matchup against the Philadelphia bullpen. The Phillies enter Saturday's showdown with an ugly 4.74 ERA for the season and, according to wins above replacement (WAR), Philadelphia has a bottom-five relief corps in Major League Baseball this season.

How to make Mets vs. Phillies picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, as the simulations project both teams combine for 8.2 runs. The model also says one side of the money line has the value. You can only get its Sunday Night Baseball picks at SportsLine

So who wins Phillies vs. Mets? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see the top picks for Mets vs. Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball, all from the advanced model that has crushed its MLB picks in 2021.