Red Sox vs. Mariners odds, line: MLB picks, best predictions for May 12 from model on 73-51 roll

The Seattle Mariners look to finish their 10-game road trip on a high note and avoid a three-game sweep when they face the Boston Red Sox. The Mariners (20-22), third in the American League West, are 2-7 on the trip and have lost three straight and 11 of 13 overall. The Red Sox (21-19), third in the AL East, have won four in a row and 10 of their past 12. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. The latest Mariners vs. Red Sox odds show Boston at -159 on the money line (risk $159 to win $100), while the over-under for total runs scored is 10. Before making any Mariners vs. Red Sox picks of your own, be sure to check out the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks in multiple sports. It entered Week 7 of the MLB season on a strong 73-51 run on top-rated picks.

Now the model has dialed in on Mariners vs. Red Sox. We can tell you it's leaning under 10 runs, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The Red Sox have dominated the Mariners through the years and lead the all-time series 245-183, including a 129-78 advantage in Boston. Right-hander Hector Velazquez (0-2, 4.03 ERA) gets the spot start on short notice. All five of his starts have been between 39 and 57 pitches. He has a 4.40 ERA in four appearances against Seattle. In his last game against the Mariners, he pitched a scoreless inning with one strikeout on March 30.

Outfielder J.D. Martinez (.310) has hit Seattle pitching well, going 9-for-24 (.375) in six games this season, including two home runs and seven RBIs. Left fielder Andrew Benintendi (.272) is 3-for-9 with a home run in the series, including a 3-for-5 performance on Friday night.

But just because Boston has had Seattle's number does not mean it is the best value on the Mariners vs. Red Sox money line.

That's because Seattle has had some success this season against Boston, including taking three of four at home March 28-31. The Mariners will send staff ace and left-hander Marco Gonzales (5-1, 3.08 ERA) to the mound. He was in line for his sixth win on Tuesday until the bullpen blew a 4-1 lead at Yankee Stadium. In nine starts this season, he has been dominant, allowing 53 hits, 24 runs – 18 earned, four home runs, 13 walks and 39 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings.

Right fielder Domingo Santana (.275) has found Boston pitching to his liking and is 4-for-8 in the series with two doubles, a triple and two runs scored. For the season, Santana is 10-for-24 (.417) against the Red Sox with two homers and five RBIs. Shortstop Tim Beckham (.257) has two home runs and four RBIs against Boston this season, while catcher Omar Narvaez has homered in all three games he's faced the Red Sox, going 6-for-13 with five RBIs. Outfielder Jay Bruce (.189) is 5-for-14 with a double, three home runs and six RBIs in his last four games against Boston.

So who wins Mariners vs. Red Sox? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mariners vs. Red Sox money line you should be all over, all from the advanced model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.

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