Red Sox vs. Mariners odds, line: MLB picks, predictions for May 11 from model on 73-51 roll

Teams heading in opposite directions meet Saturday afternoon when the Boston Red Sox host the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park. The Red Sox (20-19) have won six of seven games and nine of their last 11 and are over .500 for the first time this season. Meanwhile, the Mariners (20-21) have lost 10 of 12 and are under .500 for the first time this season. Rick Porcello (2-3, 5.11 ERA) takes the mound for Boston and will try to win his third straight game. He will face Seattle's Felix Hernandez (1-3, 5.20 ERA). First pitch is 1:05 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are -181 sportsbook favorites (risk $181 to win $100), with the Mariners fetching +167 (risk $100 to win $167) in the latest Red Sox vs. Mariners odds. Before making your Red Sox vs. Mariners picks, check out the MLB predictions from SportsLine's projection model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks in multiple sports. It entered Week 7 of the MLB season on a strong 73-51 run on top-rated picks. 

Now, the model has zeroed in on Red Sox vs. Mariners. We can tell you it is leaning under 10.5 runs, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can see that pick only at SportsLine. 

The model has factored in that Boston's pitchers have a great matchup against the Seattle lineup. The Red Sox staff leads the majors in strikeouts. Entering Friday's game, Boston pitchers had struck out 373 batters. Meanwhile, the Mariners whiff more than anyone. Seattle batters had struck out 397 times entering Friday, 21 more than the next worst team, Milwaukee.

The model also has considered that the Red Sox pitching has improved significantly since the team's slow start. Since April 24, Boston has a 2.64 ERA -- second only to the Minnesota Twins in the majors over that time. The Red Sox' record during that span is 11-4.

But just because these teams are heading in opposite directions doesn't guarantee Boston is the best value on the Red Sox vs. Mariners money line.

Seattle remains a potent offensive team. Entering Friday, the Mariners were averaging 5.55 runs per game. That's the third best average in the majors, behind only the Rangers (5.83) and Cubs (5.71) and ahead of the dangerous Dodgers (5.35). Domingo Santana has been the hottest hitter lately. In the last five games, he's hitting .444 with two home runs and five RBI and has an OPS of 1.524.

In addition, Seattle roughed up Porcello earlier this season. On March 31, the Mariners scored nine runs on six hits and four walks off Porcello in just 2.2 innings. Seattle won that game, 10-8.

So who wins Mariners vs. Red Sox? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mariners vs. Red Sox money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

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