Martinez Bogaerts
Getty Images

The Boston Red Sox will aim to finish off a four-game series sweep of the Kansas City Royals on Thursday afternoon. Boston (50-31) can also walk away having won all seven games on its current homestand. The first-place Red Sox have a three-game lead in the American League East. The Royals (33-46) are in fifth place in the American League Central. Kansas City has lost eight consecutive games and 20 of 24 overall. 

First pitch from Fenway Park in Boston is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Boston is a -240 favorite (risk $240 to win $100) in the latest Red Sox vs. Royals odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total runs scored is 10. Before making any Royals vs. Red Sox picks, check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every pitch of every game 10,000 times, had a banner 2019 season, the league's last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line MLB picks. It's off to a sizzling start in 2021, going 107-81 on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 13 weeks, returning almost $1,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Red Sox vs. Royals. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's MLB picks today. Here are the MLB lines today and betting trends for Red Sox vs. Royals:

  • Red Sox vs. Royals money line: Boston -240, Kansas City +210
  • Red Sox vs. Royals run line: Kansas City +1.5
  • Red Sox vs. Royals over-under: 10 runs
  • KC: The Royals are 4-2 when Kris Bubic starts
  • BOS: The Red Sox are 10-6 when Nathan Eovaldi starts
Featured Game | Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals

Why you should back the Royals

Kansas City has showed it can handle the Red Sox recently, taking two of three games from Boston earlier this month in Kansas City. The Royals beat Boston's Thursday starter, Nathan Eovaldi, in a 7-3 victory. In four innings on June 20, as he allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits. Kansas City's starter on Thursday, Kris Bubic, earned the win as the Royals beat the Red Sox 5-3 on June 18. He worked 2.2 innings and allowed two runs on five hits. 

Bubic will try to capture his better form out of the bullpen, as he is 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA in seven relief outings. He is 1-2 with a 5.10 ERA as a starter in six turns, but he did allow three runs in his first three starts this season. Salvador Perez went 4-for-4 with a home run on Wednesday. He leads all catchers in MLB with 19 homers. Whit Merrifield leads MLB with 22 stolen bases and has been successful on 22 consecutive attempts, the longest streak by a Royal since 2012-2014. 

Why you should back the Red Sox

Boston scored its MLB-leading 28th comeback victory on Wednesday, beating the Royals in a 6-2 win that was twice delayed by rain. J.D. Martinez hit a three-run homer, his 16th of the season, and Hunter Renfroe hit a solo shot, his 12th of the year. Now they will turn to Eovaldi to complete the sweep after he comes off allowing just one run in a season high 7.2 innings pitched with six strikeouts in a win over the Yankees on Saturday. 

Eovaldi leads all Boston starters in wins (8), ERA (3.67), innings pitched (90.2), and WHIP (1.24). He is 4-2 with a 2.66 ERA in his last seven starts. Boston is 24-12 in games decided by one or two runs, while Kansas City has lost 15 one-run games. The Red Sox are 45-4 when scoring four-plus runs. Martinez has reached base safely in 19 consecutive games. Renfroe has 12 RBI in his last nine games. 

How to make Red Sox vs. Royals picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 9.8 runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Red Sox vs. Royals? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Red Sox vs. Royals spread you need to jump on, all from the advanced model off to a hot start in 2021, and find out.