Reds vs. Marlins odds: April 11 MLB picks, predictions from model on 19-11 run

The Cincinnati Reds look to complete a three-game sweep of the Miami Marlins when they meet in a matinee on Thursday. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET from Great American Ball Park. The Reds rallied for a 2-1 victory on Wednesday with two home runs in the bottom of the eighth inning. They opened the series with a 14-0 shutout of the Marlins, who have lost seven of their last eight. Veteran Sonny Gray is scheduled to start for the Reds, opposed by rising prospect Pablo Lopez of the Marlins. Cincinnati is a -164 favorite (risk $164 to win $100) and the over-under for total runs scored is 8.5 in the latest Marlins vs. Reds odds. Before you lock in your Marlins vs. Reds picks, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks and is off to a profitable start on its MLB money line picks this season. The model entered Week 3 of the season on a strong 19-11 run on all MLB selections, and anyone who has followed it is in the black.

Now, the model has locked in on Marlins vs. Reds. We can tell you it's leaning toward the under, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. That pick is only available at SportsLine.

The model knows Gray (0-2, 2.89 ERA) was acquired in an off-season trade with the Yankees as part of Cincinnati's effort to significantly upgrade its starting pitching. The Reds also added Tanner Roark from the Nationals and former Dodgers starter Alex Wood. The right-hander was immediately signed to a three-year, $30.5 million contract extension.

The Reds failed to plate a run in either of the first two starts by Gray, both of which came against the Pirates. The right-hander also didn't get out of the third inning in his debut after allowing three runs and five hits, but he bounced back with a strong performance, yielding one run on three hits in 6 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati was blanked four times in its first seven games, but the offensive production appears to be coming around. In the series opener against Miami, the Reds broke out with five home runs in the 14-0 victory, their first win since Opening Day. They hit three consecutive home runs in the sixth inning and six players finished with at least two hits.

But just because Cincinnati has won its first two meetings against Miami doesn't guarantee it's the best value on the Reds vs. Marlins money line.

The model also knows Miami's Lopez (1-1, 6.10) is a promising prospect who cracked the rotation in large part because of a strong spring training in which he posted a 0.90 ERA and had 16 strikeouts in 20 innings. In his season debut, he picked up a win by holding the powerful Rockies to three runs on five hits in five-plus innings while striking out seven.

Despite dropping the first two games in this series, Miami has gotten the better of Cincinnati in recent matchups and ended last year with five straight wins in this rivalry.

So who wins Marlins vs. Reds? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Marlins vs. Reds money line has all the value Thursday, all from the advanced model on a strong 19-11 run on MLB picks.

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