Welcome to CBSSports.com's Rumor Buy or Sell. With the July 31 trade deadline approaching, we'll break down any various trade rumors that come our way.
The Rumor
The Miami Marlins are about to host the 2017 All-Star Game and its associated festivities. The Marlins might use their host privilege to house a fire sale, too -- that's the word from USA Today's Bob Nightengale, anyway.
The Marlins, remember, are up for sale.
(Marlins owner Jeffrey) Loria wants to stay loyal to his executives but still reduce the debt to make the purchase price more appealing, meaning their players will have to depart. It doesn't matter if your name is Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, AJ Ramos or even Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins are preparing to strip it down for the next ownership group.
Yes, less than three years after signing Stanton to a record 13-year, $325 million deal, the Marlins are ready to unload him, if someone is actually willing to inherit such a financial commitment.
We've covered the non-Stanton players before, accepting that it's more likely than not that the Marlins will make some tough trades in the near future. For now, let's focus on Stanton.
The Background
Although it feels like Stanton has been around forever -- and this is his eighth big-league season -- he won't turn 28 until November. A similar perception/reality clash exists with his production. Stanton hasn't lived up to the huge home-run totals his strength suggests (his career-high is 37, a number he's reached twice), but that has to do more so with durability issues than anything. He's played in more than 130 games only once over the last five seasons.
Of course, the reason the Marlins want to move Stanton has almost nothing to do with his play and almost everything to do with his contract. Stanton is due $77 million over the next three seasons, after which he can opt out of his contract. If Stanton doesn't opt out, he'll be owed at least $218 million through 2027. That's a lot of cash for a franchise that, frankly, isn't known for spending.
Complicating matters further is that the Marlins are up for sale. Any incoming owner is unlikely to want to inherit such a gargantuan deal -- let alone a pact that looked a wee bit ridiculous when it was signed. The Marlins were always banking on Stanton becoming a superstar who would opt out before the real money and term figures kicked in. Maybe he will anyway.
Right now, though, Stanton's contract seems like a potential liability.
The Verdict
Buy. Remember, the Marlins are familiar with trading their young stars as they grow expensive -- this is the franchise that dealt Miguel Cabrera. Stanton is a good, exciting player. He just so happens to be attached to a monster contract -- one that's going to be unattractive for a potential purchaser. That doesn't mean Stanton will be traded. But we definitely think the Marlins will try trading him between now and the time their new ownership group takes over.
