In the last six 162-game seasons, the Dodgers have won at least 100 games five times. They've gotten bounced in the NLDS three times in that span and the only World Series title came in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. As such, following the grind of a 162-game season with the playoffs attached, the Dodgers are in a familiar spot after getting swept by the Diamondbacks this week.
They have a sensational regular-season team that didn't get it done in the small samples of the postseason.
The plan moving foward is always to sustain the regular-season greatness and hope it continues through the World Series. Heading toward 2024, the plan will, most likely, specifically involve Shohei Ohtani.
When the Dodgers were conservative last winter, almost overly so, it was assumed they were trying to reset the luxury tax in order to go crazy and sign Ohtani. They did not end up staying under the $237 million threshold, sitting around $240 million, according to most credible estimates. Still, the Dodgers basically print money, especially when they keep winning 100 games per season. They can easily afford Ohtani.
Due to the Dodgers' monetary situation, the assumption that Ohtani would prefer to stay on the west coast and that he badly wants to play for a winner, the Dodgers are the favorite to land him. Everything here checks out. The Dodgers make the most sense as Ohtani's next team. This doesn't mean no other team has a chance to sign Ohtani, but the Dodgers are the favorites.
It would be a huge move for the franchise both on and off the field.
On the field, however, they'll need more than than just Ohtani this offseason. But there's an awful lot of talent coming back.
Let's say, for the sake or argument, the Dodgers sign Ohtani. They'll team him with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to have a three-superstar group on offense. Will Smith will be back behind the plate, as likely will Max Muncy and his affordable $10 million option. Remember Gavin Lux? Yeah, he'll be back from his torn ACL. If the Dodgers do sign Ohtani, it's hard to see J.D. Martinez coming back. They only have one DH spot.
That's a really nice foundation, offensively, though. I do wonder if the Dodgers could use some bigger bats down in the order. Platooning players is all well and good -- and works especially well in the grueling regular season! -- but in the playoffs when you're pinch hitting for the back half of your order in the middle innings, it just seems like you don't have a deep enough everyday lineup. Maybe James Outman gets better and there are others, but the point remains that there's room to add another big bat even after hypothetically grabbing Ohtani.
On the pitching side, remember our hypothetical Ohtani signing doesn't move the needle for 2024. He's undergone elbow surgery and won't be back to pitching just yet. We don't know what will happen with Clayton Kershaw, but it does seem overwhelmingly likely that Walker Buehler is back from his Tommy John surgery.
That means at bare minimum we can pencil in Buehler with Bobby Miller and maybe Ryan Pepiot in the rotation. With Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin not back for the start of the year after major surgeries and the status of Kershaw up in the air and Julio Urías entering free agency while on administrative leave, it would appear the Dodgers really need more pitching. We could throw youngster Emmet Sheehan and lefty Ryan Yarbrough in the mix, I guess, but right now you're still looking at a 2024 Opening Day rotation of Buehler-Miller-Pepiot-Sheehan-Yarbrough.
It really seems like the Dodgers need extra help from outside the organization there if they want to continue regular-season dominance with the hope of breaking through in the playoffs.
There are always lots of moving parts in the offseason. Plus, the Dodgers are very adept at using their organizational depth in addition to getting the most out of players with internal scouting (Jason Heyward this season is yet another in a long line of examples here). Still, it seems glaringly obvious -- even just spitballing without doing a complete organizational breakdown -- that the Dodgers need to get after it this offseason, both in free agency and on the trade market.
The bottom line is we're likely looking at a very aggressive Dodgers team this offseason. The smart money is on them getting Ohtani, and I'd wager additionally that they won't stop there. Basically, expect a lot of Dodgers talk in the coming months.
