We're into the stretch drive of the 2017 season, and that means our focus is squarely on the various and sundry playoff races.
Obviously, a glance at the standings page will give you an idea of where things stand when it comes to those coveted 10 postseason berths, but to peer a bit more deeply into these vital matters we'll turn to our compadres over at SportsLine (@SportsLine on Twitter). Over there, they cook up projections and playoff percentages for each team and tell you what each team's chances of winning the pennant and World Series are. It's partly based on results to date, of course, but how each team projects the rest of the way at the roster level also plays a big role.
So below you'll see each team's forecast regular-season record for 2017, forecast record for the remainder of the season, chances that they make the playoffs via division title or wild-card berth, and then the current chances that they win the pennant and World Series. Pretty much covers it, no? By the way, these numbers aren't just plucked from thin air; they come to us via the SportsLine projection system.
First, let's jump into the AL:
AMERICAN LEAGUE | SEASON FORECAST | REST OF SEASON | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POSTSEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | ALCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% | |
Houston Astros | 97.4 | 64.6 | 60.1% | 14.4 | 11.6 | 55.4% | 94.5% | 98.5% | 12/5, 29.4% | 29.23% | 7/1, 12.5% | 11.63% |
Cleveland Indians | 96.7 | 65.3 | 59.7% | 16.7 | 9.3 | 64.4% | 93.5% | 98.5% | 2/1, 33.3% | 32.89% | 5/1, 16.7% | 16.17% |
Boston Red Sox | 92.5 | 69.5 | 57.1% | 15.5 | 9.5 | 62.0% | 67.4% | 90.0% | 12/5, 29.4% | 20.73% | 7/1, 12.5% | 7.78% |
New York Yankees | 87.9 | 74.1 | 54.3% | 14.9 | 11.1 | 57.4% | 26.7% | 66.0% | 6/1, 14.3% | 6.92% | 14/1, 6.7% | 2.57% |
Minnesota Twins | 85.1 | 76.9 | 52.5% | 14.1 | 11.9 | 54.1% | 5.5% | 44.3% | 20/1, 4.8% | 2.90% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.74% |
Texas Rangers | 82.3 | 79.7 | 50.8% | 14.3 | 11.7 | 55.0% | 2.2% | 23.6% | 100/1, 1% | 2.43% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.88% |
Los Angeles Angels | 82.2 | 79.8 | 50.7% | 12.2 | 12.8 | 48.7% | 2.0% | 22.0% | 20/1, 4.8% | 1.61% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.46% |
Baltimore Orioles | 81.4 | 80.6 | 50.3% | 11.4 | 13.6 | 45.8% | 4.2% | 18.5% | 40/1, 2.4% | 1.10% | 80/1, 1.2% | 0.35% |
Seattle Mariners | 81.3 | 80.7 | 50.2% | 12.3 | 12.7 | 49.1% | 1.3% | 16.7% | 50/1, 2% | 0.98% | 100/1, 1% | 0.37% |
Kansas City Royals | 80.2 | 81.8 | 49.5% | 13.2 | 13.8 | 48.7% | 1.0% | 12.4% | 50/1, 2% | 0.68% | 100/1, 1% | 0.13% |
Tampa Bay Rays | 78.7 | 83.3 | 48.6% | 10.7 | 13.3 | 44.5% | 1.4% | 7.7% | 50/1, 2% | 0.37% | 100/1, 1% | 0.14% |
Toronto Blue Jays | 74.6 | 87.4 | 46.1% | 11.6 | 13.4 | 46.5% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 2500/1, 0% | 0.16% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Oakland Athletics | 68.5 | 93.5 | 42.3% | 10.5 | 15.5 | 40.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Detroit Tigers | 67.5 | 94.5 | 41.6% | 9.5 | 16.5 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Chicago White Sox | 65.7 | 96.3 | 40.6% | 11.7 | 15.3 | 43.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
First off, here's how SportsLine as of Monday projects the American League playoff bracket:
- Wild Card Game: Twins at Yankees
- Divisional Series: Red Sox vs. Indians
- Divisional Series: Wild-card winner vs. Astros
As you can see above, SportsLine now expects a tight race between the Astros and Indians for top overall seed in the AL. That's big race, as there would seem to quite difference in squaring off against the dangerous Red Sox in the first round as opposed to a wild card team without its rotation lined up. Also note that the surging Indians now have the best World Series percentage of any AL squadron. Framed another way, Cleveland's World Series chances have roughly doubled since last time. Elsewhere, the Rangers since last time out have improved their playoff odds significantly, and they're now expected to be Minnesota's stiffest challenge for that second wild-card berth. The Angels, though, are also right there.
And now for the NL:
NATIONAL LEAGUE | SEASON FORECAST | REST OF SEASON | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POST-SEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | NLCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% | |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 108.3 | 53.7 | 66.9% | 16.3 | 9.7 | 62.7% | 96.9% | 100.0% | 5/8, 61.5% | 46.56% | 7/5, 41.7% | 28.38% |
Washington Nationals | 99.0 | 63.1 | 61.1% | 17.0 | 9.0 | 65.2% | 99.4% | 99.8% | 3/1, 25% | 25.13% | 6/1, 14.3% | 15.35% |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 93.9 | 68.2 | 57.9% | 14.9 | 10.1 | 59.4% | 3.1% | 94.2% | 10/1, 9.1% | 9.01% | 20/1, 4.8% | 4.88% |
Chicago Cubs | 89.6 | 72.4 | 55.3% | 14.6 | 11.4 | 56.3% | 64.8% | 78.2% | 5/1, 16.7% | 12.86% | 10/1, 9.1% | 7.65% |
Milwaukee Brewers | 84.8 | 77.2 | 52.3% | 12.8 | 12.2 | 51.1% | 20.9% | 41.2% | 20/1, 4.8% | 2.18% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.84% |
Colorado Rockies | 84.7 | 77.3 | 52.3% | 12.7 | 13.3 | 48.9% | 0.1% | 40.1% | 20/1, 4.8% | 1.75% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.71% |
St Louis Cardinals | 83.1 | 78.9 | 51.3% | 14.1 | 11.9 | 54.2% | 12.8% | 29.6% | 30/1, 3.2% | 1.82% | 60/1, 1.6% | 0.73% |
Miami Marlins | 80.2 | 81.8 | 49.5% | 13.2 | 12.8 | 50.6% | 0.6% | 11.8% | 100/1, 1% | 0.41% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.14% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 76.2 | 85.8 | 47.0% | 11.2 | 13.8 | 44.8% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.26% | 2000/1, 0% | 0.08% |
Atlanta Braves | 72.4 | 89.6 | 44.7% | 12.4 | 14.6 | 45.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.01% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
San Diego Padres | 71.4 | 90.6 | 44.1% | 9.4 | 15.6 | 37.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
New York Mets | 69.4 | 92.7 | 42.8% | 11.3 | 14.7 | 43.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1/0, 0% | 0.01% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Cincinnati Reds | 68.6 | 93.4 | 42.4% | 10.6 | 14.4 | 42.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
San Francisco Giants | 63.7 | 98.4 | 39.3% | 9.7 | 13.3 | 42.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Philadelphia Phillies | 63.0 | 99.0 | 38.9% | 11.0 | 15.0 | 42.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
So here's the current projected NL playoff bracket:
- Wild Card Game: Brewers at Diamondbacks
- Divisional Series: Cubs vs. Nationals
- Divisional Series: Wild-card winner vs. Dodgers
It's a hairsbreadth of a margin, but right now the Brewers are just ahead of the Rockies for that second wild-card berth. Round things off, and we'd have a play-in game between those two clubs for the right to face the D-Backs. So rejoice, Milwaukee! As for the juggernaut Dodgers, they're down to "just" 108 projected wins, as they've looked a bit mortal of late. The Nats, meantime, are edging their way toward 100 projected wins.
(Enjoy this sort of thing? Get more of it at SportsLine.)