SportsLine MLB Playoff Race Projections: Indians, Nationals tabbed for 100 wins

We're into the stretch drive of the 2017 season, and that means our focus is squarely on the various and sundry playoff races. 

Obviously, a glance at the standings page will give you an idea of where things stand when it comes to those coveted 10 postseason berths, but to peer a bit more deeply into these vital matters we'll turn to our compadres over at  SportsLine  (@SportsLine on Twitter). Over there, they cook up projections and playoff percentages for each team and tell you what each team's chances of winning the pennant and World Series are. It's partly based on results to date, of course, but how each team projects the rest of the way at the roster level also plays a big role. 

So below you'll see each team's forecast regular-season record for 2017, forecast record for the remainder of the season, chances that they make the playoffs via division title or wild-card berth, and then the current chances that they win the pennant and World Series. Pretty much covers it, no? By the way, these numbers aren't just plucked from thin air; they come to us via the SportsLine projection system. 

First, let's jump into the AL:   

AMERICAN

LEAGUE

SEASON FORECAST

REST OF SEASON

MAKE PLAYOFFS

POST-SEASON SUCCESS

WINS

LOSS

WIN%

WINS

LOSS

WIN%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

ALCS ODDS

LCS%

WS ODDS

WS%

Cleveland Indians

100.0

62.0

61.7%

13.0

6.0

68.5%

98.2%

99.8%

8/5, 38.5%

37.35%

7/2, 22.2%

19.77%

Houston Astros

96.1

65.9

59.3%

10.1

8.9

53.1%

94.0%

98.1%

2/1, 33.3%

23.21%

5/1, 16.7%

9.93%

Boston Red Sox

93.1

68.9

57.5%

12.1

6.9

63.7%

66.6%

93.4%

7/2, 22.2%

21.92%

8/1, 11.1%

9.49%

New York Yankees

89.2

72.8

55.1%

12.2

7.8

61.0%

31.0%

77.8%

6/1, 14.3%

10.58%

12/1, 7.7%

4.80%

Minnesota Twins

84.4

77.6

52.1%

10.4

8.6

54.7%

1.4%

40.7%

30/1, 3.2%

2.15%

60/1, 1.6%

0.68%

Texas Rangers

82.2

79.8

50.8%

11.2

8.8

56.1%

2.5%

23.3%

50/1, 2%

1.72%

100/1, 1%

0.72%

Los Angeles Angels

82.1

79.9

50.7%

9.1

9.9

48.0%

2.6%

21.8%

30/1, 3.2%

1.08%

60/1, 1.6%

0.31%

Kansas City Royals

80.4

81.6

49.6%

9.4

10.6

47.1%

0.4%

13.5%

50/1, 2%

0.60%

100/1, 1%

0.15%

Seattle Mariners

79.6

82.4

49.1%

8.6

10.4

45.3%

0.8%

10.4%

50/1, 2%

0.56%

100/1, 1%

0.18%

Baltimore Orioles

79.5

82.5

49.1%

8.5

10.5

44.8%

1.4%

10.4%

50/1, 2%

0.51%

100/1, 1%

0.14%

Tampa Bay Rays

79.1

82.9

48.8%

8.1

9.9

44.8%

0.9%

8.8%

150/1, 0.7%

0.28%

300/1, 0.3%

0.09%

Toronto Blue Jays

74.5

87.5

46.0%

8.5

10.5

44.8%

0.1%

1.5%

1/0, 0%

0.03%

1/0, 0%

0.01%

Oakland Athletics

71.6

90.4

44.2%

8.6

10.4

45.4%

0.0%

0.3%

1/0, 0%

0.01%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

Detroit Tigers

67.2

94.8

41.5%

7.2

12.8

35.8%

0.0%

0.0%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

Chicago White Sox

63.9

98.1

39.4%

7.9

12.1

39.4%

0.0%

0.0%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%


First off, here's how SportsLine as of Monday projects the American League playoff bracket:

  • Wild Card Game: Twins at Yankees
  • ALDS: Red Sox vs. Astros
  • ALDS: Wild-card winner vs. Indians

Yes, the Indians, who at this writing have won 19 straight and not long ago overtook Houston for top seed in the AL, are expected to remain in No. 1 position. As well, SportsLine now projects the Tribe to win 100 games for the first time since 1995 and for just the third time in franchise history. Elsewhere, the Rangers and Angels are expected to put the most heat on the Twins in the race for the second AL wild-card berth. Circling back to Cleveland, their World Series are more than double the next AL squad in line. 

To the NL ... 

NATIONAL

LEAGUE

SEASON FORECAST

REST OF SEASON

MAKE PLAYOFFS

POST-SEASON SUCCESS

WINS

LOSS

WIN%

WINS

LOSS

WIN%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

NLCS ODDS

LCS%

WS ODDS

WS%

Los Angeles Dodgers

103.5

58.5

63.9%

11.5

7.5

60.4%

87.3%

99.9%

11/10, 47.6%

38.69%

5/2, 28.6%

21.04%

Washington Nationals

100.4

61.6

62.0%

12.4

6.6

65.4%

99.9%

100.0%

9/4, 30.8%

29.34%

9/2, 18.2%

17.38%

Arizona Diamondbacks

94.3

67.7

58.2%

11.3

7.7

59.6%

11.3%

93.8%

8/1, 11.1%

12.32%

16/1, 5.9%

6.44%

Colorado Rockies

88.0

74.0

54.3%

10.0

9.0

52.6%

1.4%

62.1%

12/1, 7.7%

2.98%

25/1, 3.8%

1.12%

Chicago Cubs

87.7

74.3

54.2%

10.7

8.3

56.5%

46.9%

59.2%

6/1, 14.3%

9.39%

12/1, 7.7%

5.18%

Milwaukee Brewers

85.6

76.4

52.9%

10.6

8.4

56.0%

28.7%

41.3%

20/1, 4.8%

3.57%

40/1, 2.4%

1.34%

St Louis Cardinals

85.2

76.8

52.6%

10.2

8.8

53.9%

23.4%

38.4%

15/1, 6.2%

3.48%

30/1, 3.2%

1.19%

Miami Marlins

77.6

84.4

47.9%

9.6

9.4

50.3%

0.1%

2.9%

1/0, 0%

0.10%

1/0, 0%

0.03%

Pittsburgh Pirates

75.3

86.7

46.5%

8.3

9.7

45.9%

0.8%

1.6%

1/0, 0%

0.10%

1/0, 0%

0.02%

Atlanta Braves

72.6

89.5

44.8%

8.6

11.4

42.8%

0.0%

0.2%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

San Diego Padres

71.8

90.2

44.3%

6.8

11.2

37.6%

0.0%

0.3%

1/0, 0%

0.02%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

New York Mets

71.3

90.7

44.0%

8.3

10.7

43.7%

0.0%

0.1%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

Cincinnati Reds

68.5

93.5

42.3%

6.5

11.5

35.9%

0.1%

0.1%

1/0, 0%

0.01%

1/0, 0%

0.01%

San Francisco Giants

63.0

99.0

38.9%

7.0

10.0

41.3%

0.0%

0.0%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

Philadelphia Phillies

62.3

99.8

38.4%

8.2

10.8

43.4%

0.0%

0.0%

1/0, 0%

0.00%

1/0, 0%

0.00%


So here's the current projected NL playoff bracket:

  • Wild Card Game: Rockies at Diamondbacks
  • NLDS: Cubs vs. Nationals
  • NLDS: Wild-card winner vs. Dodgers

The Dodgers' historic slide is ongoing, but SportsLine still expects them to fend off the Nats for top seed in the NL. The Nationals, though, are now tabbed for 100 wins, which would be a first in franchise history. One could also argue that you'd rather face the Cubs in the LDS round than the winner of the Rockies-Diamondbacks Wild Card Game. Speaking of the Cubs, the Brewers and Cardinals are projected to give them a fight in the NL Central right down to the wire. The Cubs still must face the Brewers four times (all on the road) and the Cardinals seven times, so those head-to-head matchups could determine the outcome of the division race. Also note that the Rockies, when it comes to the second NL wild-card spot, aren't yet comfortably clear of the NL Central logjam. 

Taking a broader view, the Indians are now within range of seizing top seed throughout the postseason (recall that the All-Star Game no longer determines home-field advantage in the World Series). To put that in perspective, as recently as Aug. 23, the Indians were 20 -- twenty! -- games behind the Dodgers. Now it's 4 1/2. Things change, you know. The Nationals, of course, are also still alive for top overall seed. 

Developing!

(Enjoy this sort of thing? Get more of it at SportsLine.) 

CBS Sports Writer

Dayn Perry has been a baseball writer for CBS Sports since early 2012. Prior to that, he wrote for FOXSports.com and ESPN.com. He's the author of three books, the most recent being Reggie Jackson: The... Full Bio

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