Greetings my fellow gamblers, it's Chris Bengel with you once again because Tom Fornelli insists on going on another vacation. Tom decided to take off for two weeks, then returned for a day, only to leave you high and dry 24 hours after coming back. Well, if Tom doesn't want to make you some money, I will.
I got to say that last night was one of the worst betting nights I've had in quite some time. I lost a small parlay where I had the Red Sox and White Sox money lines. The Red Sox won and the White Sox only lost by a run. It's not ideal, but you can live with that.
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However, I also wagered a parlay of the Astros and Angels money lines and went to bed feeling really good. The Astros had a 6-0 lead and the Angels were also up. If any team was going to mess this up, it was going to be the Angels... right?. Nope. The Astros gave up five runs in the final four innings and lost to the Seattle Mariners, 11-8. Clearly, it just wasn't my night, but I feel a lot better about tonight.
Let's get to the winners!
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Athletics at Padres, 10:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Athletics (+143): You're probably initially going to think that I'm insane for taking the A's with that much juice. However, this is a play that I feel good about for a variety of reasons.
First of all, baseball is all about playing the pitching matchup and this one heavily favors the A's. Oakland starter James Kaprielian has been outstanding as of late. Over his last eight starts, he has put together a 1.63 ERA and is averaging 6.38 strikeouts while never surrendering more than three runs.
On the other hand, Padres starter Chris Paddack has been brutal throughout the majority of the 2021 season. As if Paddack's 5.17 season ERA wasn't alarming enough, the San Diego starter has surrendered 16 runs over his last five starts and has only lasted more than five innings innings in one of those appearances. Considering that Oakland has a large amount of pop in its lineup, I wouldn't be surprised to see Paddack get chased early.
Key Trend: The A's are 11-2 in their last 13 games following an off day.
💰 The Picks
Diamondbacks at Rangers, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Rangers (-135) -- The Rangers are currently riding a 12-game losing streak. Let's back them tonight. Hey, let me explain why! They're facing the Diamondbacks. Arizona has been abysmal away from home this season as they've accumulated a 12-40 road record. In addition, the Diamondbacks have dropped four of their last six games to teams that aren't named the Pirates. They've dropped seven of their last nine road games and that's a trend I just can't ignore.
While the Rangers' bats have been very quiet of late, this is a lineup that does have some pop. Joey Gallo can tear the cover off the ball and could be showcasing himself as a potential trade candidate. Look for the Rangers to do enough to win this one.
Key Trend: Rangers are 6-2 in their last eight games as a home favorite
Marlins at Orioles, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Under 9 runs (-105) -- I can't imagine that this matchup is one where there will be a ton of money wagered, but it should be. Simply put: the Orioles are not a good baseball team. Somehow the Orioles swept the Nationals over the weekend, but I expect them to come back down to earth. This isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut that we're talking about and Marlins starter Sandy Alcantra has really good stuff -- despite what his 5-9 win-loss record indicates.
In addition, the Marlins have scored three runs or less in six of their last seven games. I expect the Marlins to be able to do enough to win this one. However, they're likely not going to score at a high clip and eight runs is a decent amount for a battle between two sub .500 teams.
Key Trend: The under is 4-0 in the Orioles' last four games when the total set at 9.0-10.5.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Top Three Starters
- Chris Flexen, Mariners
Today's Top Stack
⚾ MLB parlay
If you're looking to get a little crazy tonight, I've got just the recipe for you. Take a shot on these plus-money underdogs.
- Royals (+135)
- Mariners (+147)
- Athletics (+143)