The Eye On Baseball 2014 MLB confidence pool
How do your three loyal EOB writers see the 2014 standings when it comes to a 'confidence pool' format? Let's explore.
We're now blessedly within hailing distance of the 2014 regular season. By this point, you've no doubt perused and scowled and or grunted disapprovingly at our preseason predictions. Now, let's take those same predictions and submerge them in the cleansing waters of the confidence pool.
For the uninitiated, here's how a confidence pool works, at least for our purposes ... We'll predict each team's place in its respective divisional standings for the 2014 season, and we'll also assign each a team a "confidence number" from one to 30 (since there are 30 teams in MLB). The higher the number, the more "confident" we are that the team in question will finish precisely in the place we've predicted for them. The lower the number, the less confident we are. In essence, the confidence number we assign to each to team is how many points we're "wagering" on their predicted finish.
For example, in the table that follows you'll find that all three Eye On Baseball writers -- Mike Axisa, Matt Snyder and the preposterously handsome Dayn Perry -- have predicted the Astros to finish last in the AL West and assigned a high confidence number to that finish. That is, we're pretty darn sure that Houston is going to be the fifth-place team in its division. On the other side of things, you're going to see much lower confidence numbers within the wonderfully muddled AL East. As for how we arrived at our confidence numbers for each team, it's two parts "rigorous and informed analysis" and fractional parts "ah, whatever."
So here's what came out of the ringer ...
|Division/Team||Axisa - Order of finish||Axisa - Confidence number||Snyder - Order of finish||Snyder - Confidence number||Perry - Order of finish||Perry - Confidence number|
In addition to the Astros, we're all pretty confident about the final place in the standings for the Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs and Dodgers, as well. The team we're the least confident about, at least in terms of being able to peg their finish in the division, might be the Brewers. Also of note is that all of us gave the Yankees a confidence number of 11 even though not all of us predicted them to finish in the same spot.
At the end of the season, we'll check back in to see which of us limped to the finish ahead of the other two. Feel free to place your own bets in the comments section alongside the verbal bouquets of your choosing.
¡Viva la gambling!
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