The 2018 regular season is approaching the halfway point, and already the Arizona Diamondbacks have been through several ups and downs. They went 21-8 in their first 29 games, then went 5-18 in their next 23 games, and now they're 15-7 in their last 22 games. Their 41-33 record is the result of some really great stretches and one really bad stretch.
Despite all those ups and downs, the D-Backs remain in first place in the NL West. They're 2 1/2 games up on the Los Angeles Dodgers, and this weekend they'll play the final three games of their four-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates -- Arizona won the series opener Thursday (ARI 9, PIT 3) -- before playing a four-game series with the Miami Marlins. Given Pittsburgh's recent fade, this next week is a good opportunity for the D-Backs to bank some wins.
The big story for the D-Backs is not their upcoming schedule, however. The team is set to welcome starters Shelby Miller and Robbie Ray back from the disabled list in the coming days, with Miller scheduled to make his first start back from Tommy John surgery on Monday. Ray is currently on a minor league rehab assignment as he works his way back from an oblique injury.
"Now that (Miller's) had the Tommy John, he's healthy, he's throwing the ball really well -- they tell me he's throwing in the mid-90s right now with a really good breaking ball. So we're going to find out Monday," said former MLB GM Jim Bowden on CBS Sports HQ. "The exciting news ... Robbie Ray will be pitching for Arizona by the end of next week. Remember, Ray was the second best starter on this team a year ago behind (Zack) Greinke. So you talk about Greinke and (Patrick) Corbin and Miller and Ray, and all of a sudden that changes things."
The injuries to Ray and Taijuan Walker -- Walker was lost to Tommy John surgery three starts into the season -- really stretched the club thin in the rotation. Matt Koch came up in April to take Walker's spot and he started very well before hitting the skids these last few weeks. The numbers:
- First 5 starts: 2.59 ERA and .219/.288/.439 opponent's batting line in 31 1/3 innings
- Last 7 starts: 6.10 ERA and .295/.346/.557 opponent's batting line in 38 1/3 innings
Clay Buchholz was picked up off the scrap heap a few weeks ago and he's given the team a real nice shot in the arm, pitching to a 2.94 ERA in six starts and 33 2/3 innings. Five times in those six starts he allowed no more than two runs. Others like Troy Scribner and the now retired Kris Medlen have made spot starts this season as well.
Arizona's rotation has not been a major weakness this season. It hasn't been much of a strength either, but it hasn't been a disaster. The team currently ranks middle of the pack with a 4.16 ERA from their starters -- that is four percent below average once adjusted for ballpark -- and they're 15th in rotation WAR, so yeah, right in the middle of the pack. Not a disaster but there is room for improvement.
Miller and especially Ray represent potential improvement. Miller is more of a wild card. For starters, he is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and that's a major operation. It does have a high success rate but sometimes guys come back and they're just not the same pitcher. Secondly, Miller's tenure with the D-Backs has not gone well. He came over in the big trade with the Atlanta Braves and pitched to a 6.15 ERA in 20 starts in 2016. Last year he had 4.10 ERA in four starts before his elbow gave out.
In recent weeks Miller has pitched in four minor league rehab games, and while the overall numbers aren't great (4.66 ERA in 19 1/3 innings), one terrible outing is skewing things.
| IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 10 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Other 3 rehab starts | 16 1/3 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
Last time out Miller struck out 10 with no walks allowed in 6 2/3 innings. He's always had talent, but for whatever reason the performance wasn't there in 2016. Now Miller is coming back with a healthy elbow and a new coaching staff. That's not nothing! A new coaching staff and a fresh set of eyes may be able to help get him back to where he was with the Braves and St. Louis Cardinals.
As for Ray, he didn't pitch all that well in six starts before the oblique injury (4.88 ERA), though it's only six starts. I wouldn't sweat it too much. He was an All-Star last year and has been one of the game's pre-eminent strikeout pitchers since 2016. Every team would love to add a guy like Ray to their rotation. The D-Backs are getting him back relatively soon -- Koch was sent down for Miller, but it's unclear who will be bumped from the rotation for Ray -- and that's a significant addition.
All things considered, the D-Backs were able to weather the storm without Ray and Walker. They're still in first place and Paul Goldschmidt seems to have snapped out of his slump, which has been a welcome development. Now they're getting Ray and Miller back, which provides rotation depth if nothing else. Either Buchholz or Zack Godley is getting bumped from the rotation, and that may potentially help the bullpen, or at least put the team in better position to deal with a future injury.
I've never been a big believer in the "getting this guy back from the disabled list is like making a trade" logic -- getting a player back from injury is just making you whole again, not improving on what you had coming into the year -- though in Miller's case, it is like a trade because he's been out since last season. He hasn't pitched all this year. Will he be effective? Who knows. We can't ignore his 2016-17. But there is talent and upside there, and I'm sure the D-Backs are eager to see what he can do.
