Today's Top Picks: Fading the Yankees, backing the Rangers as home 'dogs and more MLB best bets

You know it's a bad time in the sports calendar when you're staying up until nearly 4 a.m. to watch poker, which is precisely what I did last night. I mean, I enjoy poker quite a bit. I met the love of my life playing poker roughly 15 years ago. Still, as I was fighting to keep my eyes open and wondering if the final table of the World Series of Poker would finish before the sun came up in Chicago, I came to a realization.

There is no way in hell I'd be staying up that late to watch poker on TV during football season.

Anyway, congratulations to Hossein Ensan on outlasting Dario Sammartino earlier this morning to win the main event and the $10 million prize that goes with it. Maybe put some of that $10 million on these picks for Wednesday night.

All odds are via William Hill.

1. Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees: Rays +145

Note: The Rays-Yankees game has been postponed. Here's what we had to say on the matchup, which will be played as part of a doubleheader tomorrow:

I'm not sure why the Rays are such massive underdogs here. The Rays have played well as of late, winning six of their last eight, and they have an offense that's capable of scoring runs with anybody. And well, in Yankee Stadium there aren't many offenses that aren't capable of putting runs on the board. Domingo German has been very good for the Yankees, and he's a tough matchup for any lineup, but even so, there's a little too much faith in the Yankees at these prices. Tampa is a profitable play here.

SportsLine expert and former Blue Jays analytics employee John Bollman is on a 62 percent hot streak with his MLB money line picks. He looks to continue the winning ways with Wednesday's picks, which you can find only at SportsLine. 

2. San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Over 7.5

These are undoubtedly two of the weaker offenses in baseball, and they're playing in a pitcher's park, but this total is too low. Chris Paddack gets plenty of strikeouts, and limits walks, but the contact he does allow tends to be hard. Then there's Miami starter Trevor Richards, who does manage to throw the baseball from the mound toward the catcher, but that's about the extent of his abilities. I like San Diego here straight up, but the price on them is too heavy for my taste. I prefer the over.

Mike McClure's proprietary MLB DFS projection model simulates each game 10,000 times, taking factors such as matchups and recent results into account. This allows him to find the best values on every site. Find McClure's Wednesday lineups over at SportsLine.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers: Rangers +110

Arizona starter Robbie Ray gets a lot of strikeouts. His strikeout rate of 30.8 percent is 34 percent above league average. The problem is his walk rate is 11.9 percent, and that's 40 percent above league average. It's hard to strike out nearly 12 batters per nine innings yet have a K/BB ratio of only 2.59-to-1! And when you put as many hitters on base as Ray tends to do, it's hard to trust you as a favorite on the road against a potent offense in a hitter-friendly environment.

Sal Johnson was spot-on with his Masters and PGA Championship picks, featuring Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka in his best bets. He just released some surprising picks for the 2019 British Open. See Johnson's take at SportsLine before locking in your picks.

CBS Sports Writer

Tom Fornelli has been a college football writer at CBS Sports since 2010. During his time at CBS, Tom has proven time and again that he hates your favorite team and thinks your rival is a paragon of football... Full Bio

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