NEW YORK -- "It's right in front of us."
If you've followed the Yankees over the last seven years, or heck, even if you don't care about the Yankees but simply keep tabs on baseball on the internet, then you've heard manager Aaron Boone utter those words. It's his go-to phrase in good times and bad, and it means no matter what has happened, it's on the Yankees to take care of business moving forward.
Never before has it been more right in front of them.
The Yankees begin their postseason Saturday with Game 1 against the Royals after earning a Wild Card Series bye. During their week on the sidelines, the Yankees watched their postseason nemesis, the Astros, get eliminated by the Tigers, and also the AL East rival Orioles get bounced by Kansas City. New York's path to the American League pennant goes through the AL Central.
The Astros eliminated the Yankees in the 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2022 postseasons, and the 2022 dismantling -- a four-game sweep in the ALCS -- was so thorough that it left zero doubt the Yankees were not in Houston's class. It mattered not how the teams matched up on paper. The Astros always found that extra gear in October and the Yankees could not overcome it.
During the regular season, the Yankees went 6-1 against the Astros, including a four-game sweep in Houston in the opening series. Would a postseason matchup have gone differently this time around? Maybe, but the Yankees and Astros played their final regular season game on May 9 before Houston kicked things into gear. Those early season games didn't represent the current Astros.
As for the Orioles, they have been a thorn in the Yankees' side the last two years and won eight of 13 head-to-head games this year, including two of three in Yankee Stadium two weeks ago. The O's blew the Yankees out several times and handed them some of the most crushing defeats. The Astros have been the postseason nemesis. The Orioles are the emerging AL East threat.
The O's had a wretched Wild Card Series -- a complete no-show -- and they are no longer in the picture. It is not unreasonable to say the Astros and Orioles were the two biggest threats to the Yankees this postseason. Now they are home for the winter, and the Yankees did not have to throw a single pitch. The Wild Card Series could not have played out better for New York.
This is not meant to insult AL Central teams. The Royals held the Orioles to one run in two games in Baltimore. The Tigers did to the Astros what the Astros have done to other teams the last nine years -- suffocate them with great pitching and win with late-inning heroics. Like the Yankees, the Guardians had a Wild Card Series bye and only one more loss during the regular season.
For the Yankees though, there's comfort in history. They've faced an AL Central team in the postseason five times since 2013 and eliminated them all five times. Other than the 2018 Wild Card Game win over the Athletics, the Yankees have not won a postseason series (a series with multiple games) against a team outside the AL Central since eliminating the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS.
The Yankees went 13-6 with a plus-37 run differential against the Guardians, Royals, and Tigers this season, including winning two of three against Cleveland in late August and two of three from the Royals in early September. The Yankees went 24-7 against the AL Central and 67-61 against all other teams this year. They're in their comfort zone now.
Not only have the postseason chips fallen their way with the Astros and Orioles getting eliminated, but this is also New York's only guaranteed year with Juan Soto, and they are relatively healthy. Their only notable injuries are first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who had a poor .637 OPS this year, and Nestor Cortes, who wasn't a lock to be in the postseason rotation.
Furthermore, Aaron Judge is 32 and Gerrit Cole is 34. Their primes won't last forever. Judge and Cole are at the height of their powers, Soto is in pinstripes, the Yankees are relatively healthy, and they don't have to go through the Astros or Orioles. The Yankees may never have a greater chance to win the World Series during the Cole/Judge era than right now.
The baseball gods have done their part. The Astros and Orioles are out, and by and large, the Yankees have been fortunate with injuries. Now it's on the Yankees. It's on Cole, Judge, Soto, and everyone else to perform. The Yankees have been looking for their first World Series win since 2009, and they're out of excuses. It is right in front of them, truly.
"I think we have a chance to win it all," Boone said Friday. "But I think everyone that's still going probably feels that same way, rightfully so ... I'm excited to see us take our shot, and I know our guys are all ready to roll."
