Leading up to the announcement of the 2017 Baseball Hall of Fame class on Jan. 18, we're examining each of the 34 candidates on this year's BBWAA ballot. By way of reminder, a candidate must be named on at least 75 percent of submitted BBWAA ballots in order to be elected into the Hall of Fame.
We've already looked at the numerous candidates who are certain to fall off the ballot after only one year (candidates receiving less than five percent drop off the ballot). Now we're looking at those hopefuls who figure to have meaningful support and perhaps even earn induction at some point.
Up to bat now, wiggling his bat and all, is Gary Sheffield.
Absent a massive overhaul of the voting process or something else that ain't happening, Sheffield being on the ballot is just a formality until he falls off. He got 11.7 percent of the vote in his first year and 11.6 last year in his second go-round. He's polling just over 12 percent among known ballots right now (via Ryan Thibodaux's excellent ballot tracker).
With only 10 chances, this being his third chance and needing 75 percent of the vote, the writing is on the wall for Sheffield.
Still, is this correct? Let's run down his pros and cons as a possible Hall of Famer, through the lens of what many people seem to value in these discussions.
Pros
The counting stats are good enough
Sheffield's 1636 runs scored rank 39th all-time while his 1676 RBI are 28th. Only 21 players topped 1600 in both categories and almost all are Hall of Famers (only Barry Bonds, A-Rod, Albert Pujols, Rafael Palmeiro, Sheffield and Chipper Jones are on the list but not in the Hall, and the reasons are individually obvious, such as Chipper hasn't been on the ballot yet).
Though he didn't get to 3,000 hits, Sheffield got to 2689 hits and that's typically been plenty when a Hall of Famer has other stats covered. As an example, that's more hits than Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, Reggie Jackson, Ernie Banks, Frank Thomas and a host of others. Those players listed all have 500-plus homers. So does Sheffield.
With 509 home runs, he ranks 26th all-time. The 467 doubles help push Sheffield to 4737 total bases, which is 33rd in history.
A feared hitter with a good eye -- we'll add more on that in a second -- Sheffield ranks 21st in career walks at 1475, helping him to rank 28th in career times on base.
He could run, too, with 253 career steals.
A lesser known fun fact? Sheffield is 13th in MLB history with 111 career sac flies.
The offensive rate stats are also good enough
A .292/.393/.514 slash line is plenty when teamed with the above counting stats. Four times Sheffield was in the top 10 in his league in average and won the batting title in 1992 at .330. He was in the top 10 in OBP 10 times, leading in 1996 and his career total is 88th best ever. He was in the top 10 in slugging five times and ranks 75th all-time. The OPS is 58th in history and OPS+ (140) is 78th.
If we hop over to offensive WAR, Sheffield compiled 79.9, which is good for 35th in history.
Plate discipline
Playing through an era when strikeout totals started to explode, Sheffield did not strike out much on a relative basis, especially for a power hitter. His career high in strikeouts was 83 (2004 and 2008). Out of 22 seasons, he only had more than 70 strikeouts in a season six times.
Keeping in mind his career high of 83 strikeouts, get this: He walked at least 84 times in nine different seasons -- yes, more than the number of years in which he struck out at least 70.
In years in which he qualified for the batting title, Sheffield never struck out more than he walked. Keep in mind the 500 home runs. Members of the 500 club with more career walks than strikeouts: Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Pujols, Palmeiro, Mickey Mantle, Foxx, Thomas, Williams (2021 walks vs. 763 strikeouts ... Holy smokes!), Mel Ott and Sheffield.
The "It" Factor
There's a certain crowd that claims there's a "you just know" element to watching a Hall of Famer. I don't agree with this for many reasons, but I feel like Sheffield should have it. He was a great player for nearly two decades and had that imposing feel in the box, notably the aforementioned bat wiggle. There was a certain swagger to it (call it "The Swaggle?"). It just somehow made him seem more scary in the box. Maybe it was also how hard he was to strike out compared to how good a bet he was for a an extra-base hit with those quick wrists and that violent swing.
He has a World Series ring
It's not a requirement, of course, but it doesn't hurt when a player wins it all. Sheffield did so with the 1997 Marlins. He played in six different postseasons for three different teams.
Longevity
Good enough to hang around for 2576 games (44th all-time), 10,947 plate appearances (37th) and 9217 at-bats (61st), Sheffield still hit .276/.372/.451 (119 OPS+) in 2009 at age 40. Being that productive into age 40 has to count for something.
Cons
Defense, or a lack thereof
Moved from shortstop to third base to corner outfield to designated hitter, Sheffield was anywhere from not very good to downright awful defensively. He didn't have a bad arm, with three seasons of at least 11 outfield assists, but most everything else was lacking. A 10-error season with a .954 fielding percentage in left field (2000 with the Dodgers) is unacceptable, for example.
Sheffield was routinely in the negative in advanced defensive metrics, in some cases once they started being used, and in all his defensive WAR is an abysmal negative-28.6.
Peak performance shortfall?
Through his age-29 season, Sheffield -- remember, he came up at age 19 -- had four All-Star appearances and just two top-10 MVP finishes. In 22 seasons, he'd finish as a nine-time All-Star with six top-10 MVP finishes, including a second-place and third-place, respectively.
It should be noted that he only qualified for the batting title 14 times. So nine of 14 as an All-Star and six of 14 as a top-10 in MVP don't look nearly as bad. But injuries sometimes hurt players in Hall voting due to circumstances.
We also have to consider the power surge during Sheffield's peak years. Some of his contemporaries were working up well past him in career homers, past 550, 600 or even 700 home runs. He never led his league in home runs and was only in the top five twice.
On this front, if we turn to Jay Jaffe's JAWS system, Sheffield ranks well below the Hall standard for a seven-year peak. He's behind Reggie Smith and Tony Oliva there. On overall JAWS, Sheffield is 24th among right fielders and a decent chunk below the average Hall of Famer.
The Character Clause
Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.
There's a PED strike against him here, as Sheffield has been connected to BALCO ("the cream," though he's said he didn't know there were steroids in it and claims it didn't help strengthen his knee anyway) and was named in the Mitchell Report.
Those two things alone get him off many ballots. But there's more.
In terms of integrity and character, Sheffield has admitted to botching plays on purpose earlier in his career with the Brewers. Via ESPN.com, here's an L.A. Times excerpt from 1992:
"The Brewers brought out the hate in me. I was a crazy man ... I hated everything about the place. If the official scorer gave me an error, I didn't think was an error, I'd say, 'OK, here's a real error,' and I'd throw the next ball into the stands on purpose."
It got to the point with the Brewers that they just couldn't deal with his constant complaints and terrible defense, apparently intentional, that they dealt him for a less-than-exciting package -- despite his obvious all-world talent.
Sure, he was still a kid, but this is unforgivable in the minds of many fans. I've heard as much in the past two voting cycles via email and social media.
The crowded ballot
A Hall of Fame voter only gets 10 spots. If Sheffield isn't eliminated from contention for the Character Clause, then many others aren't and Sheffield needs to beat out at least nine of the following names to make it on a ballot: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Trevor Hoffman, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Lee Smith, Fred McGriff, Jeff Kent, Larry Walker, Billy Wagner, Sammy Sosa, Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Jorge Posada.
That's one of the reasons he's yet to reach -- and probably won't -- even 15 percent of the vote.
Personally, I think it's low, but I also understand why he's in the situation he is.
Other Hall of Fame cases: Posada | Ramirez | Guerrero | Rodriguez | Sosa | Wagner