Yankees vs. Orioles odds, line: MLB picks, predictions for May 23 from advanced model on 12-5 roll

The New York Yankees will look to finish a four-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday afternoon when the teams conclude their series at Camden Yards. The AL East-leading Yankees have won the first three games of the series by scores of 10-7, 11-4 and 7-5. Nine of New York's 31 wins this season have come against last-place Baltimore, which has lost five straight games and 12 of 14 overall. Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.09 ERA) gets the start for the Yankees and will face Dylan Bundy (2-5, 4.66). First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. The latest Yankees vs. Orioles odds show New York favored at -206 on the money line (risk $206 to win $100), while the over-under for total runs scored is nine. Before making your Yankees vs. Orioles picks, listen to what the SportsLine projection model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is off to a profitable start on its top-rated MLB picks in 2019. It also entered Week 9 on a strong 12-5 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in Yankees vs. Orioles. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can see that pick only at SportsLine. 

The model knows that the Bronx Bombers love facing Bundy. The Orioles' right-hander is just 2-5 with a 6.28 ERA in nine career starts against New York. The Yankees already have faced Bundy twice this year and knocked him out early both times. He allowed three runs and lasted just 3.2 innings in both starts.

In addition, the model has factored in that New York has feasted on Baltimore this season. The Yankees have won eight straight against the Orioles, having outscored their AL East rivals 80-45 and hit at least one home run in every game. They hit five on Wednesday night. While New York (31-17) is challenging the Houston Astros for the best record in baseball, Baltimore (15-34) is challenging the Miami Marlins for the worst.

But just because this is a mismatch on paper doesn't guarantee New York is the best value on the Yankees vs. Orioles money line.

The model also knows that Bundy's best two performances have come in his last three starts. On May 4 against Tampa Bay, he scattered three hits and blanked the Rays over 7.1 strong innings. Then in his last start, on May 17 at Cleveland, Bundy didn't allow an earned run and gave up just three hits while striking out seven in 5.2 innings. The Orioles won both games.

The model also knows that Trey Mancini has been a bright spot in the lineup. The outfielder/first baseman is batting .302 and leads the team with 10 home runs. In the first three games of the series, Mancini is 3-for-11 with a double, a run and two RBIs.

So who wins Orioles vs. Yankees? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Orioles vs. Yankees money line to jump on Thursday, all from the advanced model that simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and find out.

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