The Boston Red Sox aim to avoid a sweep in their home ballpark on Sunday Night Baseball. Boston hosts the New York Yankees in a battle between long-time rivals that will have playoff implications. The Red Sox and Yankees are knotted in the AL East standings, and the two franchises are sitting atop the Wild Card race in the American League. New York is on a five-game overall winning streak, including wins on back-to-back days in Boston.
First pitch is at 7:08 p.m. ET in Boston. Boston and New York are both listed at -105 (risk $105 to win $100) in the latest Yankees vs. Red Sox odds at Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 9.5. Before you make any Red Sox vs. Yankees picks, check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is 193-164 on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 25 weeks in the 2021 season, returning over $500. It also had a banner 2019 season, the league's last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line MLB picks. Anyone following it has seen some huge returns.
- Yankees vs. Red Sox money line: Red Sox -105, Yankees -105
- Yankees vs. Red Sox over-under: 9.5 runs
- Yankees vs. Red Sox run line: Red Sox -1.5 (+170)
- NYY: The Yankees are on a five-game winning streak
- BOS: The Red Sox are 49-31 at home this season
Why you should back the Yankees
New York projects to have a pitching advantage in this matchup. Jordan Montgomery owns a 3.55 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning across 28 starts this season, and he has been even better since the All-Star break. The 28-year-old left-hander has a 2.54 ERA over the last 11 starts, and Montgomery is particularly dominant against left-handed hitters. Southpaws have an unsightly .528 OPS against Montgomery in 2021. Once Montgomery leaves the game, the Yankees don't project to lose much of anything.
New York is No. 2 in the American League in bullpen ERA (3.63) and No. 3 in the league in wins above replacement among relief corps. The Yankees also lead the AL in ground ball rate (46.7 percent) from relievers, and their bullpen is striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings for the season. That run prevention, combined with an offense that leads the AL in walk rate (10.4 percent) and mashes home runs on a nightly basis, should lay a positive groundwork for the Yankees.
Why you should back the Red Sox
Boston's offense has been quite potent this season, including the No. 3 mark in the American League with 800 runs scored. The Red Sox are No. 2 in slugging percentage (.450), No. 4 in on-base percentage (.329) and No. 3 in batting average (.262) among American League clubs, and six of their hitters have at least 18 home runs this season. Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts lead the way, with Devers posting 35 home runs and Bogaerts ranking in the top 10 of the AL in both batting average (.299) and on-base percentage (.369).
On the pitching side, Boston has clear confidence in Eduardo Rodriguez. After missing 2020, Rodriguez is rounding into form with a 3.64 ERA in the last nine starts, and he has a 3.00 ERA in four outings against the Yankees this season.
How to make Red Sox vs. Yankees picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, as the simulations project both teams combine for 9.3 runs. The model also says one side of the money line has the value. You can only get its Sunday Night Baseball picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Yankees vs. Red Sox? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see the top picks for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball, all from the advanced model that has crushed its MLB picks in 2021.