MMA: UFC 238-Shevchenko vs Eye

UFC 255 is centered around a pair of flyweight championship bouts with both incoming titleholders sitting as heavy favorites. While the odds may be unappealing on the straight moneyline, we dive deeper into the prop bets surrounding the biggest fights on the upcoming card from Las Vegas.

In the night's main event, Deiveson Figueiredo will make the first defense of his flyweight championship against Alex Perez. Figueiredo currently sits as a -300 favorite to score the win, with Perez at +240. Perez was originally scheduled to face Brandon Moreno on the card, but when former bantamweight champ Cody Garbrandt was forced out of his planned title challenge against Figueiredo, it opened the door for Perez to step into the main event.

In the co-main event, women's flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko will make the fourth defense of her title against Jennifer Maia. Shevchenko is a massive -1400 favorite over Maia, who is a +800 underdog. Shevchenko has dominated the division, winning five consecutive fights since returning to flyweight after a failed bid for Amanda Nunes' women's bantamweight title.

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When the action is expected to be this good, bettors can't wait to get in on the fun, and that's exactly what you can expect this weekend with so many intriguing matchups up and down this 12-fight card. A lot of gamblers like to live outside the box of straight moneyline picks, and that's what we're here for in this space. We're going to take a closer look at the main card to find the best values on prop bets with odds provided via William Hill Sportsbook.  

Deiveson Figueiredo (c) vs. Alex Perez

Method of resultOdds

Figueiredo via KO/TKO/DQ


Figueiredo via submission +500

Figueiredo via decision


Perez via KO/TKO/DQ


Perez via submission


Perez via decision




Fight goes the distance: YES


Fight goes the distance: NO


Pick: Figueiredo via submission (+500) -- Figueiredo is a finisher, plain and simple. There's a strong chance that he wins the fight by knockout, which is reflected in the method of victory odds. The idea of a submission is more interesting, however, with a good possibility of Figueiredo hurting Perez on the feet and following him to the ground for the finish -- much as he did in his win over Joseph Benavidez in their rematch. Perez has been submitted twice in his career coming into the fight, and only twice in nine trips to the Octagon has Figueiredo not attempted a submission. Combining all that makes the big odds of the champ winning by submission a very interesting bet.

Valentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Jennifer Maia

Method of resultOdds

Shevchenko via KO/TKO/DQ


Shevchenko via submission


Shevchenko via decision


Maia via KO/TKO/DQ


Maia via submission


Maia via decision



Fight goes the distance: YES


Fight goes the distance: NO


Pick: Shevchenko via KO/TKO/DQ (-125) -- You have to go back to 2012 to find a fight where Maia was finished, but she was knocked out by Sheila Gaff in a Cage Warriors bout. Shevchenko is simply a different fighter than anyone else in the division and entirely capable of stopping anyone. Over five rounds, it doesn't just take a single shot to get the result for which we're looking. Shevchenko dominates and will wear down Maia, which will open her up for the finish. 

Tim Means vs. Mike Perry

Method of resultOdds

Means via KO/TKO/DQ


Means via submission


Means via decision


Perry via KO/TKO/DQ


Perry via submission


Perry via decision


Fight goes the distance: YES


Fight goes the distance: NO


Pick: Fight goes the distance: YES (+120) -- Perry is obviously thought of as a big puncher with knockout power, and while that isn't inaccurate, you do have to go back more than three years for his most recent knockout victory. Means has suffered one true knockout loss in his career (vs. Niko Price in March 2019), while the other TKO loss came via injury early in his career. Means is more susceptible to submission losses in his career, and this just has the feel of a fight that goes to decision which could well go to either man. Taking the fight hitting the scorecards feels right.

Who will win Figueiredo vs. Perez, and how exactly will each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 255, all from the incomparable expert who's up more than $21,000 on MMA picks and has nailed 24 of the last 32 UFC main events.