UFC Fight Night 158 odds, top predictions: MMA insider picks Cerrone vs. Gaethje, Teixeira vs. Krylov

The UFC's lightweight division is crowded at the top, but Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone aren't the type of fighters to sit around and hope an opportunity comes their way. So, they're creating one by fighting each other Saturday night in the main event of UFC Fight Night 158 in Vancouver, British Columbia. There is a logjam atop the lightweight division as champion Khabib Nurmagomedov considers his options after last weekend's successful defense against Dustin Poirier. But the winner of the main event will be well-positioned for a title shot at some point. The fifth-ranked Gaethje (20-2) has stopped his last two opponents, while Cerrone (36-12-1), ranked fourth, saw a three-fight win streak halted in a loss to Tony Ferguson in his last outing. Gaethje is a -190 favorite (risk $190 to win $100), while Cerrone is priced at +165 (risk $100 to win $165) in the latest Cerrone vs. Gaethje odds. In the co-main event, Nikita Krylov takes on Glover Teixeira (+100) in a matchup of top-15 light heavyweight contenders. Before locking in your UFC Fight Night 158 picks or predictions, make sure to see what SportsLine MMA expert Kyle Marley has to say.

Marley won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and is in contention to win this year's contest. He also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past year, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $21,000. 

Last week at UFC 242, Marley accurately predicted that Joanne Calderwood (+190) would upset Andrea Lee (-230) in a flyweight bout on the undercard. Marley saw value on the underdog in what he viewed as an evenly-matched bout, and he concluded Calderwood's volume would be the difference. Marley was spot on in calling a split-decision victory.

The MMA analyst was also all over the co-main event at UFC 241, as he foresaw Nate Diaz (+110) returning from a three-year layoff and winning a unanimous decision against Anthony Pettis. Marley predicted that Diaz's length and nonstop pace would overwhelm Pettis, and that's exactly what happened as the underdog dominated from the opening bell. Anyone who followed his advice booked an easy winner and those who have followed him consistently are way up. 

Now, with UFC Fight Night 158 fast approaching, Marley has carefully studied every matchup on the card, identified the best value in the UFC odds and released his MMA picks for every single fight. He's sharing those selections only over at SportsLine.

Marley knows this is essentially an elimination bout to remain in title contention in a top-heavy and talent-rich lightweight division. Gaethje, the former World Series of Fighting champion, has long been a favorite of MMA fans because of his relentless style and resilience. But the 30-year-old saw his stock drop amid consecutive stoppage losses to Eddie Alvarez and Poirier. Critics suggested that, despite his exciting style, perhaps Gaethje wasn't worthy of being considered a world-class UFC fighter. But he has since silenced doubters with impressive finishes of James Vick and Barboza to return to the upper tier of the division. 

His opponent, the 36-year-old Cerrone, has seen a similar upward trajectory. The record-holder for UFC victories (22) appeared to be in the twilight of his career and perhaps headed toward release following a stretch in which he dropped four of five bouts. But he rebounded with a flourish, stopping Mike Perry and Alexander Hernandez in impressive fashion before dominating Al Iaquinta in a five-round decision. You can see Marley's strong Cerrone vs. Gaethje picks and predictions at SportsLine.

We'll reveal one of Marley's UFC Fight Night 158 predictions here: He is picking Andrew Sanchez (+250) to pull the upset of Marvin Vettori (-300) in a middleweight bout on the preliminary card.

Vettori (13-4-1) looks to build off a decision win against Cezar Ferreira in July. Sanchez (11-4) brings in a two-fight win streak after earning a unanimous decision against Marc-Andre Barriault in May.

"Sanchez is a high-paced fighter and I think he is the better wrestler as well. I think Sanchez is a live dog here if he can strike at the higher pace and mix in his takedowns," Marley told SportsLine.

Marley also has strong picks for Gaethje vs. Cerrone, Krylov vs. Teixeira and every other bout on the UFC Vancouver card.

Who wins Gaethje vs. Cerrone? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on all 12 fights at UFC Fight Night 158, all from the incomparable expert who's up more than $21,000 on MMA picks in the past year, and find out. 

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