UFC Fight Night 164 odds, predictions: Proven MMA insider picks Blachowicz vs. Jacare, Rua vs. Craig

Jan Blachowicz might be a late bloomer by UFC standards, but the Polish light heavyweight is determined to maximize his potential. He has a chance to take another step forward on Saturday when he faces Brazilian icon Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza in the main event of UFC Fight Night 164. The 12-bout UFC stop takes place in Sao Paulo, Brazil, with the main UFC Fight Night 164 card slated for 8 p.m. ET. The 36-year-old Blachowicz (24-8) has won five of his last six fights and comes off his signature victory, a knockout of Luke Rockhold. But the No. 6-ranked light heavyweight faces a challenge by going to the home country of Souza (26-7), who could be on the downside of his career at age 39 but remains one of the sport's top grapplers.

Blachowicz is a -190 favorite (risk $190 to win $100), while Souza is the underdog at +165 in the latest Blachowicz vs. Jacare odds. In the co-main event, Mauricio Rua (-270) faces Paul Craig (+230) in a light heavyweight bout. Before settling your UFC Fight Night 164 picks and predictions, make sure you hear what SportsLine MMA analyst Kyle Marley has to say.

Marley won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and is in contention to win this year's contest. He also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and UFC DFS shows. Over the past year, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $19,000.

Just last week at UFC Fight Night 163, Marley accurately predicted that Zabit Magomedsharipov (-300) would use his well-rounded skill set to get a decision victory against the rugged Calvin Kattar (+250) in their featherweight bout in the main event.

At UFC 244, Marley told SportsLine members that Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal (-140) would defeat Nate Diaz in a welterweight clash for the "BMF" title. He said that Masvidal's boxing skills and power would be too much for Diaz, and he predicted a stoppage win for Masvidal. He was proven correct when the fight was waved off after the third round because of the damage Diaz had taken. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, with UFC Fight Night 164 fast approaching, Marley has carefully studied every matchup on the card, identified the best value in the UFC odds and released his MMA picks for every single fight. Head to SportsLine right now to see them

Marley knows the 39-year-old Souza could be headed toward the end of his decorated career, which includes the Strikeforce and Dream middleweight championships. He is 9-4 in the UFC, where he has received seven post-fight performance awards since his debut with the promotion in 2013.

He recent bouts include losses to former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker and interim title challenger Kelvin Gastelum. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist defeated former middleweight champ Chris Weidman last November before suffering a decision loss to Jack Hermansson in April.

He's stepping up in weight class to take on a rising contender in Blachowicz, 36, who has seen his stock rise following multiple strong outings. He is coming off a knockout of former middleweight title-holder Luke Rockhold at UFC 239 in July. You can get all of Marley's Blachowicz vs. Jacare picks at SportsLine.

We'll share one of Marley's UFC Fight Night 164 predictions here: He is backing Wellington Turman (+100) to upset Markus Perez (-120) in a middleweight battle on the main card. Turman (15-3) lost his UFC debut in July in a razor-thin split decision against Karl Roberson. He had won four consecutive fights in various promotions before the defeat. Perez (12-2) has split his four UFC bouts, all of which have come against rising contenders. He defeated Anthony Hernandez by submission in February. 

"This is going to end up being a close decision that could go either way, but I am going to lean with the slight underdog," Marley told SportsLine. "I'll take Turman to land the harder shots and land takedowns in order to get the win."

Marley has also locked in strong picks for Jacare vs. Blachowicz, Craig vs. Rua, and every other bout on the UFC Brazil card.

Who wins Souza vs. Blachowicz? And how exactly does each fight at UFC Fight Night 164 end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC Fight Night 164, all from the expert who's up nearly $19,000 on MMA in the past year, and find out.

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