After a week off, the 2018 NASCAR season rolls on at 2 p.m. ET Sunday with the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. After opening the week at 3/1, Kevin Harvick is the Vegas favorite at 9/4. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch are right behind him at 11/2, followed by Kyle Larson at 8/1.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy NASCAR tournament on sites like DraftKings, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model completely nailed the STP 500 two weeks ago, correctly calling seven of the top 10 finishers in Martinsville. It also placed champion Clint Bowyer, who wasn't a top Vegas contender with 15/1 odds, in its projected top 10. Anybody who followed those picks cashed in huge.

Now that the field for the 2018 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One driver the model absolutely loves: Joey Logano, who is going off at 15/1 odds.

Logano is one of several members of Team Penske expected to make a serious push on Sunday. He won this event in 2014 and has finished in the top three in three of his last four races at Texas Motor Speedway.

He's also been a regular near the top of the leaderboards this year, recording top-10 finishes in every race except for one. He's a driver you should be all over in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.

Another curveball: Ryan Blaney, whom Vegas considers a top contender at the 2018 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, doesn't sniff the top 10.

Blaney impressed during Saturday's My Bariatric Solutions 300, leading 132 laps en route to the win. However, he's finished outside the top 10 twice this season on the Monster Energy Cup (12th at Atlanta, 16th at Phoenix) and took fifth in Vegas despite starting on the pole.

Blaney isn't worth the 12/1 odds he's getting for NASCAR at Texas 2018.

Also, three other drivers with odds of 15/1 or longer are primed to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anybody who bets on these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that nailed seven of the top 10 finishers in the STP 500.

Kevin Harvick 9/4
Martin Truex Jr. 11/2
Kyle Busch 11/2
Kyle Larson 8/1
Ryan Blaney 12/1 
Denny Hamlin 12/1 
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Joey Logano 15/1
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Chase Elliott 18/1 
Erik Jones 18/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Kurt Busch 18/1
Aric Almirola 40/1
Daniel Suarez 40/1