2018 Quaker State 400 odds and picks: Proven model reveals surprising predictions for NASCAR at Kentucky

The Kentucky Speedway, halfway in between Louisville and Cincinnati, hosts the 2018 Quaker State 400 at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Martin Truex Jr., the reigning champion, also won the pole for NASCAR at Kentucky this year. However, at 3-1 Quaker State 400 odds, he is not the favorite. At 2-1, that honor belongs to Kevin Harvick, who has finished in the top 10 in all but four races this year. Nine drivers are going off at lower than 20-1 NASCAR at Kentucky odds. Before you lock in your 2018 Quaker State 400 picks, you need to see what the team at SportsLine has to say.

Their model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to almost $2 million in career winnings. McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing its 2018 NASCAR picks.

The model has already made several huge calls in NASCAR this year, including nailing two of the past three winners -- Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma.

It also predicted the 1-2 finish for Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick at the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 and Harvick's win at the KC Masterpiece 400. Additionally, it nailed five of the top 10 at Bristol and two of the top five at the Daytona 500, just to name a few of its big calls. Anybody following its picks this season is way, way up.

Now that the 2018 Quaker State 400 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One surprising pick from the model for Saturday's Quaker State 400: Joey Logano, listed at 30-1 Quaker State 400 odds, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Logano has led laps in three of the last four races at Kentucky Speedway and has been the pace-setter among the Renske Fords this season. He has especially been lethal on 1.5-mile tracks, finishing eighth or better five times this year. And in the last five races this season, he has cracked the top 10 three times (Chicago, Michigan, Pocono).

Another shocker: Harvick, the Vegas favorite at 2-1, falls short of the title. He's a driver to avoid on Saturday.

Although he has been one of the most dominant drivers in NASCAR this year and generally runs well at 1.5-mile tracks, he has never had a top-five finish in his seven starts at Kentucky. There are far better values to win it all in this loaded field.

The model also says four other drivers going off with 2018 NASCAR at Kentucky odds of 20-1 or longer will make a serious run at the checkered flag, including a deep sleeper. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could strike it rich.

So who wins the 2018 Quaker State 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest Quaker State 400 odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year.

Kevin Harvick 2-1
Martin Truex Jr. 3-1 
Kyle Busch 7-2
Kyle Larson 7-1
Ryan Blaney 15-1 
Clint Bowyer 18-1
Denny Hamlin 18-1
Brad Keselowski 18-1 
Erik Jones 18-1   
Joey Logano 30-1
Kurt Buch 30-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Chase Elliott 30-1

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