2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Vegas picks and NASCAR predictions: Fade Kyle Larson, back Jimmie Johnson at Atlanta

What we saw at the Daytona 500 last week can be thrown out the window when the 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 gets the green flag on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET at Atlanta Motor Speedway. There are new car rules and new aerodynamics that will be an integral part of the race strategy on the 1.5-mile speedway after they were a non-factor last week. Kevin Harvick, who won this race last year, is the 4-1 favorite in the latest 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 odds. Joey Logano and Kyle Busch are right behind him at 6-1, while 2019 runner-up Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson are at 8-1. With so little known about how each car will handle at Atlanta on Sunday, you'll want to see what SportsLine's Micah Roberts is saying before making any 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 picks. He's a legendary Vegas bookmaker and a staple of NASCAR handicapping.

Roberts pioneered wagering on NASCAR races and went with Jimmie Johnson as a hefty 25-1 long shot at the season-opening Advance Auto Parts Clash. The result: Johnson survived a huge crash and went on to win the rain-shortened race as Roberts' followers raked it in. He entered the 2019 NASCAR season after finishing big-time in the black in 2018. In fact, those who wagered $100 on each of his picks last year have $1,750 in profit to show for it. 

His biggest wins came when he went against the grain, taking Keselowski at 12-1 to win the South Point 400 at Las Vegas in the opening race of the NASCAR playoffs and going with Logano, also 12-1, to take the First Data 500 at Martinsville. He also nailed four of Harvick's nine series victories and three of Busch's nine wins.

That success continued an astonishing run in which Roberts picked nine of the 10 winners in the 2017 NASCAR playoffs. In 2016, he took Denny Hamlin to win the Daytona 500 at 15-1 and took him again at 40-1 at Watkins Glen later that year. Anyone who's following his picks is up huge.

Now, he has analyzed Sunday's 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 lineup from every possible angle and locked in his 2019 NASCAR at Atlanta picks and NASCAR predictions. One shocker: Roberts is fading is Larson, one of the top Vegas favorites at 8-1 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. 

Larson has never won a race on a 1.5-mile track, which includes Atlanta. He finished ninth last year in this event, and Roberts has him even further back on his leaderboard for 2019.

Another curveball: Roberts is again high on Jimmie Johnson, who is going off as a 25-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Atlanta odds.

Johnson won the Advance Auto Parts Clash as a 25-1 favorite, and Roberts picked that one to a massive windfall. Johnson has more wins in Atlanta (five) than any other active driver. In Vegas testing prior to the start of the season, Johnson's car was the fastest, indicating he may be more prepared than most for Sunday, especially in a race that won't feature restrictor plates.

"Whenever there have been changes to aero packages, rules, or engines, Hendrick Motorsports has always been at the forefront with an early edge," Roberts told SportsLine. Johnson finished in the top 10 in last week's Daytona 500 after starting in 17th, a marked improvement over his 38th place showing the previous year. Ride Johnson's momentum on Sunday; he's a target for anyone looking for a big payday once again.

Roberts is also projecting three drivers with 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 odds of 25-1 or longer make a strong run at the checkered flag. His picks will shock many, but anyone who backs them could be in line for a massive payday. 

So which drivers are must-backs in the 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500? And which underdogs shock NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard from the nation's premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.

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