2019 NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks: Advanced model says Chase Elliott surprises at Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

Bristol Motor Speedway has been a fixture on the NASCAR schedule since 1961 and the 0.533-mile oval's stadium seating gives the entire audience a full view of all the action, making it one of the fans' favorite venues on the circuit. On Saturday night, the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race will be held at Bristol under the lights with the green flag dropping at 7:30 p.m. ET. Kyle Busch is leading the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series standings and he's got eight career wins at Bristol, so it makes sense that he's the 5-2 favorite in the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race odds. Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski both have a pair of victories here and they're listed at 7-1 and 12-1, respectively, in the NASCAR at Bristol odds. But before you make your 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race picks, be sure to check out the NASCAR at Bristol predictions and projected leaderboard from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to an extremely strong start in NASCAR this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.'s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's huge win in the first race at Pocono.

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Bristol 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Bristol 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Elliott, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot with 20-1 odds. Elliott has locked up his spot in the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs with a pair of wins this season but he's trying to fight off Kurt Busch in eighth place and towards Keselowski in sixth place to earn as many bonus points as he can to make sure he isn't too far off the pace when the postseason begins.

The 23-year-old captured his seventh career pole two weeks ago at Watkins Glen and nearly went wire-to-wire by leading 80 of 90 laps on his way to his fifth career win. He followed that up with a ninth-place finish at Michigan last week and appears to have righted the ship as he heads towards the playoffs. After once ranking as high as third in the standings with five straight top-fives in the spring, Elliott looks like a championship contender once again and we know he's fast at Bristol. He sat on the pole there in the spring before finishing 11th and finished third in the night race a season ago.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, one of the top Vegas favorites at 8-1, barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 NASCAR at Bristol Night Race lineup.

Larson hasn't won since the 2017 season when he took four checkered flags and he's had a rough 2019, with just 10 top-10 finishes in 23 starts. He has netted three consecutive top-10 finishes to get back up to 13th in the standings after dropping as low as 21st when he crashed at Talladega back in April. However, Larson finished 19th at the Food City 500 in Bristol Motor Speedway and was 19th or worse in four of his last eight starts there.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR at Bristol odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 5-2
Kevin Harvick 7-1
Joey Logano 7-1
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Kyle Larson 8-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Chase Elliott 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30-1
Jimmie Johnson 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Alex Bowman 40-1
Wiliam Byron 50-1

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