2019 NASCAR at Dover odds, picks, Playoffs predictions: Model says Joey Logano surprises at Drydene 400

The 2019 NASCAR Playoffs has now entered the Round of 12 as four drivers were cut after last week's road race at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Now the final 12 drivers will return to Dover International Speedway for the fourth postseason race when the green flag drops on the 2019 Drydene 400 at 2:30 p.m. ET. NASCAR has been running at Dover for 50 years now and the Monster Mile promises to provide plenty of excitement on Sunday with points reset and 12 drivers fighting to stay alive as they pursue the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., who rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the standings, are listed as 4-1 co-favorites in the latest 2019 Drydene 400 odds. However, Chase Elliott (7-1) is coming off a win last week, while Kevin Harvick (6-1) and Kyle Larson (6-1) are both expected to be in the mix as well. So before you make any NASCAR at Dover predictions, be sure to check out the 2019 Drydene 400 picks from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model has crushed its NASCAR picks this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.'s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's huge win in the first race at Pocono. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Dover International Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Dover 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Dover, we can tell you the model is high on Joey Logano, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a 14-1 long shot. Logano enters Sunday's race sitting fourth in the standings and the 23-time winner and 2018 champion is looking for a win to fuel a surge back towards the top after leading in points for a large chunk of the regular season.

Logano has 17 top-10 finishes and two victories this season and he ran well at Dover the first time around, finishing in seventh place. Logano has a total of 12 top-10 finishes at Dover International Speedway in 21 career starts and finished third in the fall race at Dover last season. Look for Logano to get his Roger Penske Ford towards the front on Sunday at the Monster Mile.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Busch, one of the Vegas favorites at 4-1, fails to get the job done and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in a loaded lineup.

Busch broke his sway bar early last week at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course and wound up deciding not to come back out after a red flag with 10 laps to go. He wound up finishing 37th but is still tops in the standings after 29 races. Busch has now finished 19th or worse in three of his last four races, but is back in first place with points resetting for the Round of 12. And while Busch is a three-time winner at Dover, he's also finished 16th or worse in five of his last 11 starts there.

The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR at Dover odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this play could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Drydene 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 4-1
Martin Truex Jr. 4-1
Kevin Harvick 6-1
Kyle Larson 6-1
Chase Elliott 7-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Joey Logano 14-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Clint Bowyer 30-1
Kurt Busch 30-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
William Byron 30-1
Jimmie Johnson 30-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1

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