2019 NASCAR at Indianapolis odds, picks: Model says Chase Elliott surprises at Brickyard 400

In a sport where history means everything, there are few traditions in NASCAR more meaningful than kissing the bricks at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. NASCAR began coming to the historic venue that also hosts the Indianapolis 500 back in 1994 and it's quickly become one of the most prestigious races outside the Daytona 500. On Sunday, the green flag will drop on the 2019 Brickyard 400, which is officially known as the 2019 Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, at 2 p.m. ET and this year it means just a little bit more as the final race before the start of the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs. Kyle Busch has two wins in Indianapolis and he's a 9-2 co-favorite with Kevin Harvick in the latest 2019 Brickyard 400 odds. However, with six drivers listed at 6-1 or better, Vegas is expecting it to be a hard-fought affair. So before you make your NASCAR at Indianapolis predictions, be sure to check out the 2019 Brickyard 400 picks and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model has crushed its NASCAR picks this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.'s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's huge win in the first race at Pocono.

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Indianapolis Motor Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Indianapolis 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Indianapolis, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Elliott, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 25-1 odds. It's been an up-and-down season for Elliott, but he's in eighth place in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup standings and he's guaranteed a spot in the NASCAR Playoffs 2019 thanks to two wins this season.

Elliott took the checkered flag at Talladega and Watkins Glen in 2019 and he's finished inside the top 10 in three of his last four starts. And although he doesn't have a top 10 finish in four starts on NASCAR's top circuit at Indianapolis, he did have two top 10s in three starts at Indianapolis on the Xfinity Series, including a fourth-place finish where he led 13 laps last season.

And a massive shocker: Joey Logano, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in a loaded lineup. Logano is still second in the NASCAR standings, but he's gone five consecutive races without making a top 10, and he hasn't finished inside the top five since Chicagoland Speedway back June 30. Logano hasn't ever won at Indianapolis and finished 13th at the 2018 Brickyard 400 despite starting in fifth position. Logano isn't in great form right now he's a tough buy at 6-1 at a track he doesn't have winning history at.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Indianapolis odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Brickyard 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 9-2
Kevin Harvick 9-2
Brad Keselowski 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Kyle Larson 6-1
Joey Logano 6-1
Denny Hamlin 18-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Aric Almirola 18-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Chase Elliott 25-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 50-1
Jimmie Johnson 50-1
Alex Bowman 50-1

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