2019 NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks, Playoffs predictions: Model says Chase Elliott surprises at Federated Auto Parts 400

Richmond Raceway opened in 1946 and began hosting NASCAR's top circuit in 1953, with Lee Petty taking the checkered flag. Now the iconic 3/4-mile oval will host the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs on Saturday night under the lights. The green flag drops on the 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 at 7:30 p.m. ET and the 16 playoff drivers will be battling their way through a full field to fight for every point available. Martin Truex Jr. is at the top of the standings after a win last week at Las Vegas and is listed at 5-1 in the 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds. However, it's Kyle Busch who is listed as the 3-1 favorite with a whopping six career victories at Richmond to his name. But before you make any NASCAR at Richmond predictions, be sure to check out the 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine first.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model has crushed its NASCAR picks this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.'s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's huge win in the first race at Pocono. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Richmond Raceway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Richmond 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Richmond, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Elliott, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 16-1 odds. Elliott won twice this season, giving him five wins in the last two years. And while he finished 15th at Richmond in the spring, he impressed by fighting his way up from the 32nd starting position.

Prior to that, Elliott was riding a streak of three consecutive top-10s at Richmond Raceway with a second-place finish in the spring race in 2018 and a fourth-place finish in the fall. He also finished second at Martinsville in earlier this spring, won the pole at Bristol the first time around and finished fifth in his second run at Bristol, so he's got his short-track setup dialed in nicely.

And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., one of the Vegas favorites at 5-1, fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in a loaded lineup.

Truex got win No. 5 last week in Las Vegas and he won at Richmond earlier in the season, but this has been a boom-or-bust venue for the series points leader. In 27 career starts at Richmond, Truex has finished outside the top 20 on 13 occasions and he's only got four top-five finishes with the win earlier this spring serving as his first ever there. In fact, that win was his first on a short track (less than a mile) of any kind in 82 career starts and that's why the model is fading him this weekend.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Richmond odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 3-1
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Kevin Harvick 6-1
Joey Logano 8-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Kyle Larson 14-1
Chase Elliott 16-1
Erik Jones 16-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Ryan Blaney 40-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Alex Bowman 50-1
William Byron 50-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1
Jimmie Johnson 80-1
Ryan Newman 100-1

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