For the second time in five weeks, a new race will hit the Cup Series schedule, when the 2021 Ally 400 takes place on Father's Day. Last month, NASCAR debuted at COTA, and while Nashville Superspeedway has hosted NASCAR races before, Sunday will mark the first Cup Series event at the 1.333-miles concrete track. NASCAR at Nashville will be similar in length to Darlington, where Martin Truex Jr. earned his third victory of the season.

William Hill Sportsbook lists Truex Jr. second on its 2021 Ally 400 odds board at 5-1, trailing only Kyle Larson (5-1), who is coming off a victory at the All-Star Race. The driver sitting atop the Cup Series standings, Denny Hamlin, is 6-1, while Kyle Busch is listed at 15-2. Ten different drivers have Ally 400 odds 2021 of 13-1 or shorter. Before scouring the 2021 Ally 400 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Nashville predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Ally 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in seven of the last 13 races. In April, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Last week, he nailed Kyle Larson to win the NASCAR All-Star Race for a 5-2 payout. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Ally 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Nashville leaderboard.

Top 2021 Ally 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 12-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Nashville odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. While the Ally 400 2021 will be the only Cup Series race on a concrete tri-oval track, Keselowski won on the asphalt tri-oval of Talladega in April

Keselowski currently sits at 10th in NASCAR standings, but his No. 2 car has outperformed his current position. He ranks sixth in laps led (201), sixth in fastest laps (160) and sixth in quality passes (827). He's had two wins and five other top-five NASCAR at Nashville finishes. Over his last eight Nashville races, Keselowski had seven top-five finishes.

And a massive shocker: Denny Hamlin, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in a loaded 2021 Ally 400 starting lineup. The current leader in the NASCAR standings has nine top-five finishes already this season, but he's failed to make his way to victory lane after winning 13 times the past two seasons.

In his last three regular-season starts, Hamlin only has four fastest laps, while his driver rating has dipped below 100 in each start. Hamlin failed to make it to victory lane in five career Xfinity Series starts at Nashville and even though he's a strong bet to be near the front, he's not a value to win given his difficulties closing out races this year.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Nashville picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Nashville odds longer than 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all and also sees value in a massive 200-1 long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Ally 400 2021? And which 200-1 long shot is a shocking value this week? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Nashville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Ally 400 leaderboard, all from the model that called at least seven of the top 10 drivers in seven of the last 13 races and nailed Kyle Larson's win last week at the NASCAR All-Star Race. 

2021 Ally 400 odds

Kyle Larson 5-2
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Chase Elliott 13-2
Kyle Busch 15-2
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Joey Logano 12-1
William Byron 13-1
Alex Bowman 13-1
Ryan Blaney 22-1
Christopher Bell 35-1
Tyler Reddick 40-1
Kurt Busch 60-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Matt DiBenedetto 75-1
Chris Buescher 150-1
Ross Chastain 150-1
Daniel Suarez 200-1
Ryan Newman 200-1
Erik Jones 200-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 200-1
Aric Almirola 200-1
Bubba Wallace 250-1
Cole Custer 250-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Chase Briscoe 500-1
Ryan Preece 750-1
Joey Gase 2500-1
David Starr 5000-1
Chad Finchum 5000-1
Justin Haley 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Anthony Alfredo 5000-1