The 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 will take place on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway, the first race of the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Playoffs. Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Chase Elliott is sixth in the NASCAR standings with just three races remaining until the run for a championship in Phoenix. Can Elliott overcome all the drama surrounding his rivalry with Kevin Harvick to work his way back into the top four?

Elliott has 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds of 6-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, while Kyle Larson is the 11-4 favorite. Neither has a regular-season win to his name at Texas, but Harvick (10-1), Kyle Busch (7-1) and Denny Hamlin (6-1) all have multiple wins there and are near the top of the 2021 NASCAR at Texas odds board. Before scouring the 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Texas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At the Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 in Texas and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. It also called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout and then correctly predicted the top five drivers at Watkins Glen. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete NASCAR at Texas projected leaderboard.

Top 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Texas odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 2012 NASCAR Cup Series champion was the final driver to make the cut and he'll either need a win or to make up the ground in the NASCAR standings to earn his second consecutive Championship 4 appearance.

Keselowski has had two top-three finishes and four top-10 finishes total on 1.5-mile tracks this season, so he should have his setup dialed in for Texas Motor Speedway. While the 37-year-old doesn't have a win at Texas, he has five top-five finishes there, including runner-up finishes at the 2012 and 2014 AAA Texas 500.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 starting lineup.

Elliott hasn't been running particularly well of late. He's finished outside the top 10 in four of his last six starts, including a 12th-place finish on the Charlotte Roval last week after he had won the previous two races on that track. He's never won at Texas Motor Speedway in 10 Cup starts and his NASCAR odds are implying a 14.29 percent chance to win on Sunday, while the model is predicting he wins just 4.36 percent of the time.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Texas picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Texas odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500? And which long shots do you need to back? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Texas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted Kyle Larson's big win at Texas in the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race

2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds

Kyle Larson 11-4
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Chase Elliott 6-1
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Kyle Busch 7-1
Ryan Blaney 17-2
Kevin Harvick 10-1
William Byron 13-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Kurt Busch 30-1
Tyler Reddick 35-1
Christopher Bell 40-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 75-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Aric Almirola 125-1
Chris Buescher 150-1
Daniel Suarez 150-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 150-1
Bubba Wallace 200-1
Cole Custer 250-1
Erik Jones 250-1
Chase Briscoe 300-1
Ryan Newman 300-1
Michael McDowell 750-1
Ryan Preece 1000-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Justin Haley 2500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Joey Gase 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
David Starr 5000-1

2021 NASCAR standings

1. Kyle Larson 4065 points
2. Denny Hamlin 4030
3. Martin Truex Jr. 4029
4. Ryan Blaney 4024
5. Kyle Busch 4023
6. Chase Elliott 4022
7. Joey Logano 4013
8. Brad Keselowski 4008