Dirt is the original racing surface for many drivers who ultimately ascend to the NASCAR Cup Series. On Monday, the weather-delayed 2021 Food City Dirt Race will take place at the half-mile Bristol Motor Speedway, which has seen 8,000 cubic feet of red clay dumped onto the track's customary concrete surface. Heavily modified Cup Series cars had to wait an extra day to compete on the dirt fortress, as heavy rains in Tennessee washed out Saturday's truck race and Sunday's Cup race, postponing the 250-lap Food City Dirt Race 2021 to a 4 p.m. ET start.

The 2021 Food City Dirt Race odds from William Hill Sportsbook favor Kyle Larson (11-5), the two-time defending Chili Bowl National champion. Rookie Chase Briscoe, who raced sprint cars on the surface from the age of 13, is at 10-1 in the 2021 NASCAR at Bristol odds. Before you scour the 2021 Food City Dirt Race starting lineup and make your NASCAR at Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Food City Dirt Race picks from SportsLine's proven projection model

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. 

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. During the 2021 season, the model has projected at least seven top-10 finishers in each of the last three weeks. Anybody who has followed its NASCAR picks has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated this unique 2021 NASCAR dirt race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 Food City Dirt Race leaderboard.

Top 2021 Food City Dirt Race predictions

One shocker: The model is high on Chase Elliott, even though he's a 20-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Bristol odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Elliott piloted a late-model car last week at the Karl Kustoms Bristol Dirt Nationals, participated in the Chili Bowl Nationals, and even ran in the USAC series.

Elliott is currently 10th in the NASCAR standings on the strength of a runner-up finish at the Daytona 500 and a fifth at Phoenix two weeks ago. Totaling 11 NASCAR Cup Series victories on short tracks, 1 1/2-mile raceways, superspeedways and road courses, Elliott is unquestionably one of the most versatile drivers in the sport, which is why the SportsLine model likes him for your NASCAR at Bristol bets.

Another massive shocker: Stewart Friesen, one of the top Vegas co-favorites at 10-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 NASCAR dirt race starting grid. The 37-year-old Canadian is a veteran of the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series and has been an established racer for well over a decade, with over 200 career wins on dirt.

However, Friesen has been full-time in the truck series for the last three seasons and been up and down at Bristol Motor Speedway during his truck career. He finished second there in the 2018 UNOH 200 and fourth in the 2019 UNOH 200, but finished outside the top 20 in his three other starts. This will be his first ever NASCAR Cup Series start and even with all the dirt experience, he's a big risk as one of the race favorites.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Bristol picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR at Bristol odds 2021 of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 Food City Dirt Race? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Bristol odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Food City Dirt Race leaderboard, all from the model that nailed at least seven of the top 10 drivers the last three weeks

2021 Food City Dirt Race odds 

Kyle Larson 11-5
Christopher Bell 13-2
Chase Briscoe 10-1
Stewart Friesen 10-1
Austin Dillon 12-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Tyler Reddick 15-1
Chase Elliott 20-1
Kyle Busch 22-1
Bubba Wallace 22-1
Mike Marlar 25-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25-1
Kevin Harvick 30-1
Martin Truex Jr. 30-1
Kurt Busch 30-1
Joey Logano 30-1
Denny Hamlin 30-1
William Byron 40-1
Brad Keselowski 50-1
Shane Golobic 50-1
Chris Windom 60-1
Ty Dillon 75-1
Matt DiBenedetto 75-1
Cole Custer 75-1
Ryan Newman 75-1
Erik Jones 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Michael McDowell 100-1
Ross Chastain 150-1
Daniel Suarez 250-1
Ryan Preece 500-1
JJ Yeley 500-1
Cody Ware 1000-1
Anthony Alfredo 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
Quin Houff 1000-1
Josh Bilicki 1000-1