Road America has been hosting Xfinity Series races for the last decade, but the Cup Series will make its return to the track on Sunday for the first time since 1956. The 2021 Jockey Made in America 250 will take place on the 4.048-mile circuit, which is the longest track in all of NASCAR and located in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. The asphalt road course features 14 turns and whichever driver completes 62 laps around the track first will claim the 2021 NASCAR at Road America checkered flag on Independence Day.

With a victory in May on a road course, Chase Elliott is the 5-2 favorite in the latest 2021 NASCAR at Road America odds at William Hill Sportsbook. The surging Kyle Larson, who has seven top-two finishes over his last eight races, is right behind Elliott at 3-1. Other NASCAR contenders in the 2021 Jockey Made in America 250 odds include Martin Truex Jr. (5-1), Kyle Busch (7-1) and Denny Hamlin (10-1). Before scouring the 2021 Jockey Made in America 250 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Elkhart Lake predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Jockey Made in America 250 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in eight of the last 16 races. In April, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson to win the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race for a 5-2 payout and then called Larson to win again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Jockey Made in America 250 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Road America leaderboard.

Top 2021 Jockey Made in America 250 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's a huge 25-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Wisconsin odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The veteran has displayed renewed vigor since NASCAR's All-Star Race, as he's posted three straight top-10s. He's coming off a fourth-place finish at Pocono last week, which tied for his second-best finish all season.

Many drivers will be experiencing Road America for the first time, but Harvick has as much experience on road courses as anyone. He has victories at Watkins Glen (2006) and Sonoma (2017), which are among the 10 top-10 finishes he has in his career on road tracks. He's held a lead for nearly 200 laps on these types of circuits, so he's used to being out front.

A massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., one of the Vegas favorites at 5-1, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Jockey Made in America 250 starting lineup. Truex has three wins already this season, but he's slid all the way back to seventh in the standings (after peaking in second) by way of six finishes outside the top 10 in his last seven starts.

Once the most dominant road racer in the sport, Truex has finished outside the top 10 in two of his three road starts this season and hasn't won a road race now since Sonoma in June 2019. Truex hasn't run Elkhart Lake at any level in NASCAR and with several capable young drivers in the field with experience on the track, he's simply not a strong value at 5-1.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Road America picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Wisconsin odds longer than 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. It also sees value in a massive triple-digit long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Jockey Made in America 250 2021? And which massive triple-digit long shot is a shocking value this week? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Road America odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Jockey Made in America 250 leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed Kyle Larson's last two wins. 

2021 Jockey Made in America 250 odds

Chase Elliott 5-2
Kyle Larson 3-1
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Kyle Busch 7-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Joey Logano 12-1
A.J. Allmendinger 20-1
William Byron 20-1
Alex Bowman 22-1
Kevin Harvick 25-1
Ryan Blaney 30-1
Kurt Busch 35-1
Brad Keselowski 35-1
Austin Cindric 40-1
Christopher Bell 50-1
Tyler Reddick 65-1
Ross Chastain 65-1
Erik Jones 100-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Daniel Suarez 100-1
Michael McDowell 100-1
Cole Custer 125-1
Aric Almirola 150-1
Ryan Preece 175-1
Matt DiBenedetto 175-1
Ryan Newman 200-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Bubba Wallace 500-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Ryan Eversley 5000-1
Kyle Tilley 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Justin Haley 5000-1
Ty Dillon 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Anthony Alfredo 5000-1