The 2021 ToyotaCare 250 will be the first NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race in nearly three weeks following the dirt race in Bristol as an interesting blend of veterans, hungry youngsters and even a Cup Series superstar will descend upon Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch has won a staggering 57 percent of his truck starts since 2013 but he last ran a truck at Richmond in 2005, finishing 30th after a crash. The condensed NASCAR schedule led to Busch skipping Richmond in the first truck race there since 2005 last season, but he's scheduled to be in the driver's seat when the green flag drops at 1:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Busch will start in 12th, but he's still the 2-3 favorite in the 2021 ToyotaCare 250 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Meanwhile, John Hunter Nemechek is nursing a six-point lead in the Truck Series standings over Ben Rhodes and he's at 13-2 in the NASCAR Truck Series at Richmond odds, while Rhodes is at 12-1. Before making any 2021 NASCAR Truck Series at Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 ToyotaCare 250 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.
At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Then earlier this season, it called Kyle Busch's truck series win in Atlanta. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, his model simulated the 2021 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series at Richmond race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard for the 2021 ToyotaCare 250.
Top 2021 ToyotaCare 250 predictions
One surprise: The model is high on Chandler Smith, even though he's a massive 40-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR Truck Series at Richmond odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Despite the fact that he won't turn 19 until June 26, Smith already has 21 truck starts under his belt dating back to when he was a 16-year-old, and he's recorded 10 top-10 finishes during that span.
Smith's first full-time season in the Truck Series hasn't quite gone to plan thus far with just one top 10 in five starts, but he should be motivated to turn things around on Saturday. Team owner Kyle Busch will be in the field on Saturday and Smith will be looking to improve upon a 12th-place finish at Richmond Raceway last season.
And a massive shocker: Matt Crafton, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in this loaded field. The 45-year-old is now in his 21st season as a full-time Truck Series driver and the three-time series champion finished second after leading 25 laps in the first truck race at Richmond since 2005 last season.
However, Crafton had only collected one top-10 finish in five starts at Richmond Raceway from 2001-2005 and he's coming off a disappointing 14th-place finish on the dirt at Bristol. Crafton has only led three laps all season so his 10-1 odds look a little too short to provide value on Saturday.
How to make 2021 NASCAR Truck Series at Richmond picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR Truck Series at Richmond odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the ToyotaCare 250 2021? And which long shots stun the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR Truck Series at Richmond odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 ToyotaCare 250 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin's win last season.
2021 ToyotaCare 250 odds (via William Hill)
Kyle Busch 2-3
John Hunter Nemechek 13-2
Sheldon Creed 17-2
Matt Crafton 10-1
Zane Smith 10-1
Austin Hill 12-1
Ben Rhodes 12-1
Grant Enfinger 18-1
Todd Gilliland 22-1
Sam Mayer 25-1
Stewart Friesen 25-1
Brett Moffitt 30-1
Chandler Smith 40-1
Johnny Sauter 50-1
Tyler Ankrum 60-1
Raphael Lessard 75-1
Derek Kraus 100-1
Tanner Gray 125-1
Carson Hocevar 200-1
Ryan Truex 200-1
Timothy Peters 200-1
Chase Purdy 200-1
Hailie Deegan 300-1