William Byron will try to win his third straight NASCAR Cup Series race when he heads to Atlanta for the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 on Sunday. Byron won in Las Vegas and Phoenix and is returning to Atlanta as the defending champion. He is the 9-1 favorite in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds at Caesars Sportsbook, while Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch are both top 2023 Ambetter Health 400 contenders at 10-1. Which drivers should you back with your 2023 Atlanta NASCAR bets?

Larson has never won a superspeedway race and only has one top-five finish in 36 starts at that track type, finishing outside the top 10 in both races in Atlanta last year. Should you fade him with your 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta picks? Before scouring the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Ambetter Health 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta leaderboard.

Top 2023 Ambetter Health 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Martin Truex Jr., even though he's a 22-1 long shot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Truex led 27 laps in Atlanta last summer before finishing in ninth place, notching his third top-10 in his last four starts at this track.

He came in second place in Atlanta in the spring race in 2021 and followed it up with a fifth-place finish in the summer. Truex has finished in the top 10 in 11 of his last 13 appearances in Atlanta, so he has experienced plenty of success on this track during his career. He is one of the most experienced drivers in the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup, creating value as a longshot in the betting market. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: William Byron, the Vegas favorite at 9-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup. Byron won the spring race in Atlanta last season and is coming off back-to-back wins that include a win on a 1.5-mile oval (Las Vegas), so it's no surprise that he's the favorite.

However, tire failures were an issue in Atlanta after the surface had been repaved during the offseason and additional adjustments mean the track is likely to run differently again. Byron went on to finish 30th after a crash in the summer race and has finished 17th or worse in five of his seven career Cup starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2023 NASCAR Atlana odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Ambetter Health 400 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Atlanta NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model that already called winners at the Clash, Duel and Pala Casino 400.

2023 Ambetter Health 400 odds, lineup

See full 2023 Ambetter Health 400 picks at SportsLine

William Byron 9-1
Kyle Larson 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Ross Chastain 11-1
Joey Logano 11-1
Christopher Bell 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Brad Keselowski 17-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1
Bubba Wallace 20-1
Chris Buescher 20-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Daniel Suarez 22-1
Martin Truex Jr. 22-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Chase Briscoe 28-1
Austin Cindric 28-1
Austin Dillon 30-1
Josh Berry 35-1
Erik Jones 35-1
Corey Lajoie 45-1
Ryan Preece 50-1
Todd Gilliland 50-1
Michael McDowell 50-1
Noah Gragson 50-1
A.J. Allmendinger 50-1
Justin Haley 60-1
Ty Gibbs 60-1
Harrison Burton 65-1
Ty Dillon 250-1
BJ McLeod 1000-1
Cody Ware 1000-1
JJ Yeley 1000-1