Alex Bowman is still looking for his first win of the season, but he could do so in grand fashion on Sunday evening. His No. 48 car will be adorned in the title sponsor of this weekend's NASCAR at Nashville race, the 2023 Ally 400. He is 28-1 to win according to the latest 2023 Ally 400 odds after he finished 14th in the 2021 event.
Bowman hasn't even cracked the top 10 of a race since early April, so he'll be looking for a major turnaround this weekend. To do so, he'll have to be better than other 2023 Ally 400 contenders like Kyle Busch (15-2), Martin Truex Jr. (7-1), and Kyle Larson (5-1). The 2023 Ally 400 is set to get underway at 7 p.m. ET. Before scouring the 2023 Ally 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Nashville predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 NASCAR at Nashville picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). In Austin, it listed Tyler Reddick as one of its best values and he went on to win for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021.
All told, the model has nailed a whopping 12 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 Ally 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 Ally 400 leaderboard.
Top 2023 Ally 400 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 15-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Nashville odds. Logano is a target for anyone looking for a huge payday after he has finished in the top 10 in each of the two Cup Series races in Nashville. After back-to-back third-place finishes heading into this weekend, he looks primed to break through for a win.
This season, the defending Cup Series champion is fifth in gain rate (2.51), which rates a driver's passer rating by perceived difficulty. He has also increased his percentage of max speed on second segment laps over the first segment at the seventh-highest rate among all drivers (.0115). Logano has been stalking his second win of the season for some time, and looks ready to find it this weekend in Nashville. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Kyle Busch, one of the Vegas favorites at 15-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Ally 400 starting lineup, according to the model. The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion is experiencing something of a career revival with Richard Childress Racing, winning three of the first 16 races this season.
However, he's sixth in the 2023 NASCAR standings because of four finishes outside the top 20 and Nashville has been a bit of a challenge for him. He finished 11th there in 2021 after starting on the front row (second) and finished 21st there in 2022. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Nashville picks
The model is also targeting one other driver with 2023 NASCAR Nashville odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Ally 400 2023? And which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Nashville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 NASCAR Nashville leaderboard, all from the model that already nailed six winners in 2023.
2023 Ally 400 odds, drivers, lineup
See full 2023 NASCAR at Nashville picks at SportsLine
Kyle Larson 5-1
Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
Kyle Busch 15-2
Denny Hamlin 15-2
Chase Elliott 8-1
William Byron 8-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Christopher Bell 10-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Tyler Reddick 16-1
Bubba Wallace 20-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Ty Gibbs 30-1
Brad Keselowski 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Chris Buescher 75-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1
Austin Cindric 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Ryan Preece 150-1
Erik Jones 200-1
A.J. Allmendinger 250-1
Michael McDowell 350-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Noah Gragson 500-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Corey Lajoie 750-1
Todd Gilliland 1000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Brennan Poole 5000-1
Ty Dillon 5000-1
