The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to a short track on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET with the 2025 Food City 500. Formerly a dirt race, NASCAR at Bristol 2025 will take place on the 0.533-mile concrete oval at Bristol Motor Speedway. Denny Hamlin won the first short track race of the year at Martinsville, went back-to-back with a Darlington victory last week, and won at Bristol in 2024. If you're looking for one of the potential NASCAR Bristol sleepers, you'll have to look elsewhere than Hamlin, who's +460 in the 2025 NASCAR at Bristol odds. The likes of Chris Buescher (+3700) and Austin Dillon (+17000) could fit the bill, even though both are recent short track winners. Hamlin is -195 to secure a top-five finish, while Buescher is +145 to crack the top 10.
Before entering any 2025 Food City 500 picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Bristol predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including two winners in 2025.
SportsLine simulated the Food City 500 2025 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:
Top NASCAR at Bristol sleeper picks from 10,000 simulations
Joey Logano (+2400 at DraftKings)
Logano enters in with five straight top 15s this season, including a season-best eighth-place finish when he last graced a short track at Martinsville. He also collected a stage win in that race and has risen to ninth in the NASCAR standings, despite a crash causing a 35th-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500. Logano won the inaugural dirt race at Bristol Motor Speedway in 2021 but also has a pair of Bristol victories on a paved surface like what he'll see on Sunday. The three-time Cup Series champion also has the backing of one of the most successful teams in Bristol history as Team Penske's 13 wins at the track are its most at any circuit and are also the second-most of any team in Bristol Motor Speedway history. Thus, it's a surprise that Logano has +2400 longshot odds at DraftKings.
Ty Gibbs (+2000 at Bet365)
After a rough start to the year, Gibbs appears to be getting back on track and is coming off consecutive top 15 finishes. His Bristol history is even more promising, with three straight top 15s, including a pair of top 10 placements. He led for over 100 total laps in two of those three races, while also sweeping the stages at this very race a year ago. One also shouldn't discount his Bristol domination on the ARCA Menards Series as Gibbs won his last spin at this track on that series in 2021, which followed a pair of runners-up in his prior two Bristol starts with ARCA. He is listed at +1600 at some sportsbooks but can be found at +2000 at both Bet365 and DraftKings.
Kyle Busch (+2000 at Caesars)
One day, Busch will be inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame, and he can point to his success on short tracks as a big reason for his future enshrinement. His 16 wins on tracks under 1 mile are twice as many as any other active driver, save for Hamlin (15), and that includes several checkered flags at Bristol Motor Speedway. His six victories at this race are tied for the most in Cup Series history, while he has another three wins at the Bristol fall race. Even if he's not winning, he's still in contention as he has top-5 finishes in seven of his last 13 starts at Bristol. Caesars Sportsbook has Busch as a steal at +2000 NASCAR odds.
More top NASCAR at Bristol expert picks, longshots revealed
You've seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 Food City 500 leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 20 winners, including Chase Elliott's victory at Bowman Gray and Kyle Larson's win at Homestead.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your NASCAR at Bristol picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Steven Taranto's picks, including an epic triple-digit longshot, all from an expert who nailed 17 NASCAR winners last year.
Visit SportsLine now to see McClure's top NASCAR DFS picks, all from the daily Fantasy professional who has won more than $2 million playing DFS.
2025 NASCAR Bristol odds, drivers, lineup
Kyle Larson +270
Denny Hamlin +460
William Byron +950
Chase Elliott +950
Ryan Blaney +1000
Christopher Bell +1000
Alex Bowman +1100
Ty Gibbs +1800
Joey Logano +2400
Tyler Reddick +2800
Kyle Busch +2800
Chase Briscoe +3200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +3400
Josh Berry +3700
Brad Keselowski +3700
Chris Buescher +3700
Bubba Wallace +4400
Carson Hocevar +5500
Austin Cindric +8500
Ryan Preece +8500
Ross Chastain +8500
AJ Allmendinger +11000
Ty Dillon +17000
Austin Dillon +17000
Daniel Suarez +17000
Justin Haley +17000
Michael McDowell +17000
Noah Gragson +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Jesse Love +34000
Todd Gilliland +34000
Cole Custer +34000
Zane Smith +34000
Erik Jones +34000
Josh Bilicki +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Shane Van Gisbergen +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
Corey LaJoie +50000
