With 26 regular-season races on the NASCAR schedule and 16 drivers making the playoffs, two wins during the year guarantees a qualifying team will make the postseason. After collecting two wins in the first three races of the season, Christopher Bell has already punched his ticket into the NASCAR playoffs and now he'll set his sights on the 2025 Shriners Children's 500 on Sunday. The race is scheduled for 312 laps around the one-mile tri-oval at Phoenix Raceway, with the green flag dropping at 3:30 p.m. ET. Bell is +750 in this week's NASCAR at Phoenix odds from FanDuel, with the latest 2025 NASCAR Phoenix forecast calling for sunny skies and temperatures around 70. William Byron is on the pole.
Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson are +700 favorites, followed by Joey Logano (+750) and Bell in the 2025 Shriners Children's 500 odds. Before entering any 2025 Shriners Children's 500 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Phoenix predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray and was also high on Byron as a +2000 longshot at Daytona. In 2024, it nailed Kyle Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.
It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 19 winners since 2021, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races last season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the Shriners Children's 500 2025 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard.
Top 2025 Shriners Children's 500 predictions
For the 2025 Shriners Children's 500, we can tell you the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's a longshot at +2400 in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Perhaps no driver in the NASCAR Cup Series has benefitted more from the parity created by the Next-Gen Car than Ross Chastain, who has piled up five wins and made two playoff appearances in the three seasons since the new car was launched.
Chastain finished second in the NASCAR standings in 2022 and ninth in 2023 before finishing 19th in 2024, but he did manage to add a victory in Kansas during the playoffs even though he didn't qualify for the postseason. He also won the series finale in Phoenix in 2023 despite having already been eliminated from title contention and has generally run well at Phoenix Raceway. He has three top-five finishes in 13 starts on the one-miler. You can get Chastain at +2400 at FanDuel:
And a massive shocker: Christopher Bell, the top Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2025 Shriners Children's 500 starting lineup. Bell dazzled during victories in Atlanta and Austin, and will race the rest of the season knowing that his playoff fate is secured.
However, he only led nine laps combined during his victories the last two weeks and Phoenix has produced some inconsistent results for Bell. He led 50 laps and won the spring race last season and then led 132 laps in the finale, but wound up finishing fifth (last among the four championship-eligible drivers). Those are his only two top-five finishes at the track and he has four finishes outside the top 15 during 10 Cup starts in Phoenix. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 NASCAR at Phoenix picks
The model is also targeting two drivers with Phoenix NASCAR odds longer than 12-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the NASCAR Shriners Children's 500 2025, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Phoenix odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full NASCAR Phoenix projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 19 winners, including Chase Elliott's win at the 2025 Clash at Bowman Gray.
2025 NASCAR Phoenix odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Phoenix picks at SportsLine
Ryan Blaney +700
Kyle Larson +700
Joey Logano +750
Christopher Bell +750
Kyle Busch +850
Tyler Reddick +850
William Byron +850
Chase Elliott +1300
Denny Hamlin +1700
Chase Briscoe +2100
Ross Chastain +1400
Ty Gibbs +2200
Chris Buescher +2200
Josh Berry +3300
Brad Keselowski +3500
Bubba Wallace +4000
Alex Bowman +5500
Austin Cindric +6500
Ryan Preece +7500
Carson Hocevar +7500
Daniel Suarez +8000
Cole Custer +10000
Noah Gragson +10000
Michael McDowell +17500
Erik Jones +20000
Riley Herbst +20000
Justin Haley +20000
AJ Allmendinger +25000
Austin Dillon +25000
Shane Van Gisbergen +25000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +30000
Zane Smith +35000
John Hunter Nemechek +75000
Ty Dillon +150000
Cody Ware +250000
Katherine Legge +250000
