2025 NASCAR Viva Mexico 250 betting, odds, picks: 3 free NASCAR longshots at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
SportsLine's model has simulated the 2025 NASCAR Mexico City race 10,000 times and released its auto racing best bets
Denny Hamlin has won three NASCAR Cup Series races this season and will try for his fourth at the 2025 Viva Mexico 250. Sunday's race will be contested at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City, marking the first Cup Series race outside of the United States since 1958. Hamlin is coming off a victory at Michigan International Speedway, but he's not among the favorites to claim the checkered flag on Sunday. The 2025 Viva Mexico 250 is set to begin at 3 p.m. ET.
New Zealand's Shane Van Gisbergen has a win and five top-10 finishes in seven career starts on a road course or street course. He is the +330 favorite in the 2025 Viva Mexico 250 odds. He's followed on the 2025 NASCAR Mexico odds board by Christopher Bell (+700), Tyler Reddick (+800), Kyle Larson (+800) and William Byron (+800). Hamlin is going off as a +4000 longshot.
Before entering any 2025 Mexico NASCAR picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Mexico predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 22 winners since 2021, including four winners in 2025.
SportsLine simulated the NASCAR Viva Mexico 250 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:
Best NASCAR at Mexico City longshots (odds subject to change):
- A.J. Allmendinger (+1200)
- Daniel Suarez (+1400)
- Kyle Busch (+1400)
A.J. Allmendinger (+2200)
The veteran has two career starts at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez and secured podiums in each. Both came on Champ Car World Series as he placed third in his debut there and then was runner-up in his second start. This season on the Cup Series, Allmendinger is poised for his best finish in nearly a decade and is in the top 20 of the NASCAR standings. He enters the Viva Mexico 250 with three straight top 20s for the first time since July 2023 and has four straight if you count his seventh place at the All-Star Open Race. With all three of his career Cup Series victories coming on road courses like what he'll see on Sunday, Allmendinger's experience shouldn't be discounted as he can be wagered on with the help of a DraftKings promo code:
Daniel Suarez (+1800)
A native of Monterrey, Mexico, Suarez got his racing start in his native country and was the youngest driver to win on the NASCAR Mexico Mini-Stocks. More recently, Suarez started a single race in the 2024 NASCAR Mexico Series, and he won that 150-lap race. While this year on the Cup Series got off to a rocky start, he has performed better as of late, and if you take out crashes that derailed his chances, he has five straight top 20 finishes. Also, no one on the Cup Series is as well-versed with Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez as Suarez is as he competed on it over a dozen times in the Mexico Series, including racking up three checkered flags. The local favorite can be had at +1800 at DraftKings:
Kyle Busch (+2900)
The Xfinity Series is also resurrecting its Mexico race this year after last holding a race in the country in 2008, and Kyle Busch just happened to be the winner in that final race 17 years ago. So, he'll have a good feeling stepping back onto the track, and his success on other road circuits will also give him confidence. No active driver has more starts (57), top 5s (20) or top 10s (30) than Busch at road courses like what he'll see in Mexico City. Busch has also improved his finish over each of his last three starts of this season, with an eighth-place last week at Michigan. Given his momentum, success at comparable tracks and a winning history with Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, Busch would be a steal at +2900 and can be wagered on with a Caesars Sportsbook promo code:
More top NASCAR at Mexico expert picks, longshots revealed
You've seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 NASCAR Mexico leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 22 winners, including Elliott's victory at Bowman Gray, Larson's win at Miami, Bell's All-Star victory and Hamlin's Michigan win.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your NASCAR at Mexico picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Steven Taranto's picks, including an epic longshot of over 25-1, all from an expert who has nailed 17 NASCAR winners.
2025 NASCAR Mexico odds, drivers, lineup
(odds via DraftKings are subject to change)
Shane Van Gisbergen +330
Christopher Bell +700
William Byron +800
Tyler Reddick +800
Kyle Larson +800
Chase Elliott +1000
AJ Allmendinger +1200
Kyle Busch +1400
Daniel Suarez +1400
Chris Buescher +1600
Ross Chastain +1800
Michael McDowell +1800
Alex Bowman +2500
Carson Hocevar +2800
Chase Briscoe +3000
Ty Gibbs +3000
Austin Cindric +3500
Denny Hamlin +4000
Ryan Blaney +4000
Joey Logano +5500
Todd Gilliland +15000
Bubba Wallace +15000
Brad Keselowski +15000
Noah Gragson +20000
Ryan Preece +20000
Justin Haley +20000
Austin Dillon +20000
Zane Smith +25000
Cole Custer +25000
Josh Berry +30000
Riley Herbst +30000
Erik Jones +30000
Ricky Stenhouse +40000
John Hunter Nemechek +40000
Ty Dillon +100000
Katherine Legge +100000
Cody Ware +100000
