nascar-8-usatsi-1.jpg
Imagn Images

The NASCAR Mexico Series has been around for over 20 years, but the NASCAR Cup Series visiting the country for a points race has never been seen before. That will change with the 2025 Viva México 250, which takes place on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET from Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. NASCAR at Mexico City has been years in the making, and not only is it the first Cup Series race in the nation, but the Viva México 250 2025 is also the first race outside the U.S. since 1958. With a novel race like this one, a unique name appears at the top of the 2025 NASCAR at Mexico City odds board. Shane van Gisbergen, who has no top-fives this season, is the +330 favorite due to his past road race success.

Christopher Bell, who has three wins in 2025, follows at +700, with other 2025 NASCAR Mexico City contenders including William Byron (+800) and Kyle Larson (+800). Before entering any 2025 Viva Mexico 250 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Mexico predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray and was also high on Byron as a +2000 longshot at Daytona. Then it predicted Kyle Larson's win in Miami for a +350 payout, Christopher Bell's +600 triumph in the NASCAR All-Star Race and Denny Hamlin's +650 victory in Michigan. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.

It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 22 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns. New users also have the opportunity to take advantage of the latest Bet365 promo code, Caesars Sportsbook promo code and Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Now, the model simulated the 2025 Viva Mexico 250 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Mexico City leaderboard.

Top 2025 Viva Mexico 250 predictions

For the 2025 Viva Mexico 250, the model is high on Michael McDowell, even though he's a +2200 longshot in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Mexico odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After starting his racing career as an open-wheeler, McDowell didn't transition to stock car racing until 2006 as a 21-year-old. However, he had raced his way into the NASCAR Cup Series by 2008 and he's been a fixture ever since.

The 40-year-old has 45 career top-10 finishes in NASCAR's top level and 11 of those runs were on road courses while two more came in the Chicago Street Race. McDowell won the 2023 Verizon 200 on the grand prix circuit at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and he also ran extremely well in the only other road race so far this season. McDowell led three laps and collected stage points with a third-place finish in Stage 2 and then finished 11th despite suffering a pass-through penalty when his pit crew went over the wall early. BetMGM is offering the best odds here for McDowell and you can also build in first-bet insurance with the latest BetMGM promo code:

The only Mexican driver to win on the Cup Series, Suarez was a regular on the NASCAR Mexico Series early in his career. He not only has experience at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, with 13 starts at the track, but he has success there as well. He's a three-time winner at the track, with another pair of top-5 finishes. Additionally, Suarez' last start on the NASCAR Mexico Series was a victory in Feb. 2024, which came just weeks before his last win on the Cup Series.

After finishing 20th or worse in each of his first five Cup Series seasons, Suarez has placed inside the top 20 each of the last three years. He's been up and down in 2025 but is coming off a pair of top-20 finishes, and as long as he avoids vehicle issues, he's usually always in contention. Suarez enters Sunday's race with five straight top 20s overall -- including three top 10s -- in races in which his car didn't suffer an accident. Suarez described racing in Mexico City on the Cup Series "a dream come true", so the motivation factor shouldn't be discounted as the model has him notching his second top 5 of the season. The model sees +200 odds at FanDuel as plenty of value, and new users can also get the latest FanDuel promo code. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 NASCAR at Mexico picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with Mexico NASCAR odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2025 Viva Mexico 250, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Mexico odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full NASCAR Mexico projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 22 winners, and find out.

2025 NASCAR Mexico odds, drivers, lineup

See the full NASCAR at Mexico picks at SportsLine

Shane Van Gisbergen +330
Christopher Bell +700
William Byron +800
Tyler Reddick +800
Kyle Larson +800
Chase Elliott +1000
AJ Allmendinger +1200
Kyle Busch +1400
Daniel Suarez +1400
Chris Buescher +1600
Ross Chastain +1800
Michael McDowell +1800
Alex Bowman +2500
Carson Hocevar +2800
Chase Briscoe +3000
Ty Gibbs +3000
Austin Cindric +3500
Denny Hamlin +4000
Ryan Blaney +4000
Joey Logano +5500
Todd Gilliland +15000
Bubba Wallace +15000
Brad Keselowski +15000
Noah Gragson +20000
Ryan Preece +20000
Justin Haley +20000
Austin Dillon +20000
Zane Smith +25000
Cole Custer +25000
Josh Berry +30000
Riley Herbst +30000
Erik Jones +30000
Ricky Stenhouse +40000
John Hunter Nemechek +40000
Ty Dillon +100000
Katherine Legge +100000
Cody Ware +100000