Consumers Energy 400 odds, picks 2019: Proven NASCAR model says Kyle Larson surprises at Michigan

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is down to its final four races before the start of the playoffs, and on Sunday drivers will return to the fastest track on the circuit for the 2019 Consumers Energy 400. Michigan International Speedway is a two-mile oval with gentle corners and long straightaways that doesn't require restrictor plates like Talladega or Daytona. That means speeds can reach well over 200 m.p.h. before cars enter the turns. High-speed racing will create plenty of excitement when the green flag drops on NASCAR at Michigan at 3 p.m. ET. This is the 50th year of NASCAR at Michigan and Joey Logano has two wins here. He's listed at 7-1 in the latest 2019 Consumers Energy 400 odds. Kevin Harvick also has a pair of Michigan wins and he's the overall favorite at 4-1 NASCAR at Michigan odds. Before you make your 2019 Consumers Energy 400 picks, be sure to read the NASCAR at Michigan predictions and projected leaderboard from the model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to an extremely strong start in NASCAR this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.'s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's huge win in the first race at Pocono.

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Michigan International Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Michigan 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Michigan, we can tell you the model is high on Kyle Larson, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off at 20-1 NASCAR at Michigan odds. Larson is on the bubble to make the NASCAR Playoffs 2019, currently sitting in 14th place with the top 16 drivers getting into the field. It's been a disappointing year overall for the 27-year-old, as he has just nine top-10 finishes. 

However, he's picking it up lately, with five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts. More importantly, he's had a stellar history at Michigan. Larson won three times in a row at Michigan International Speedway from August 2016 to August 2017 and finished third in the June race before that streak began. He's had more success at Michigan than anywhere and the model is high on his chances of getting to the front of the 2019 NASCAR at Michigan leaderboard yet again on Sunday.

And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., one of the top Vegas favorites at 7-1, barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in a loaded lineup.

Truex is fifth in the standings entering this week and has four victories, but he's been plagued by inconsistency this season. Truex has finished 17th or worse on seven occasions this year and he's had 11 career finishes of 17th or worse in 27 career starts at Michigan. Just like last week, Truex finished second at Watkins Glen last year and he wound up following up that performance with a 14th-place finish at Michigan. So fade Truex in the second Michigan race of the season.

The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR at Michigan odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 Consumers Energy 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Consumers Energy 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kevin Harvick 4-1
Brad Keselowski 9-2 
Kyle Busch 7-1
Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
Joey Logano 7-1
Erik Jones 16-1
Clint Bowyer 18-1 
Denny Hamlin 20-1
Kyle Larson 20-1
Chase Elliott 25-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Ryan Blaney 25-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1 
William Byron 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Aric Almirola 50-1

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