Duels at Daytona odds, picks 2019: Advanced computer model says Jimmie Johnson surprises NASCAR, Joey Logano disappoints

The front row of the 2019 Daytona 500 is set, with Hendricks Motorsports teammates William Byron and Alex Bowman locked into the No. 1 and No. 2 positions. However, the next 30 spots in the field will be decided on Thursday night at the 2019 Gander RV Daytona Duels. These two separate 150-mile races determine the next 15 spots in each lane behind the front-row qualifiers and the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series' biggest stars will be battling out for both the prestige of winning a duel and the advantage of starting near the front. In Duel No. 1, Brad Keselowski is the 3-1 favorite while Joey Logano is the favorite in Duel No. 2 at 7-2 in the latest 2019 Daytona Duels odds. However, there are intriguing options up and down the odds board and you'll definitely want to check out the NASCAR predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine before you make your 2019 Gander RV Daytona Duels picks.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, SportsLine's proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model takes factors such as track history and recent results into account. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to almost $2 million in career winnings. 

It made some huge calls in NASCAR last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the 2018 Daytona 500. Anybody who followed its picks finished way up. 

Now it has evaluated the 2019 Duels at Daytona fields for both races and locked in its projected Daytona Duel leaderboards. One pick we'll give away: the model is fading Logano, who is going off as the Vegas favorite at 7-2 in the Gander RV Duel 2 at Daytona.

Logano has run well in this event, finishing in the top 10 four straight times. However, he's never won, as he's settled for second place twice and third place once. He also has finished 10th or worse three times since 2009. There are far better values available in Daytona Duel 2.

And a stunner: Jimmie Johnson surges towards the front in Duel No. 1 despite going off with 9-1 odds.

The 43-year-old is one of NASCAR's greatest drivers ever with seven series championships to tie him with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for the most ever. Johnson has two Daytona 500 wins under his belt and he's coming off a win at the Advance Auto Parts Clash all-star exhibition at Daytona International Speedway last weekend.

The Hendricks Motorsports team has its cars dialed in for speed at Daytona, with Johnson ranking third in qualifying behind Byron and Bowman, and Chase Elliott qualifying in fourth to lock them into the top two spots in each duel. So Johnson will have a drafting partner with him whose qualifying spot is safe and that can help protect his position throughout the race. If Johnson can stay out in front of the big one, he has the speed and the experience to get the win.

The model is also high on another driver going off at 20-1 or higher in Daytona Duel No. 1, as well as three drivers going off at 15-1 or higher in Daytona Duel No. 2. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big 

So who wins the 2019 Gander RV Duels at Daytona? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2019 Gander RV Daytona Duel odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that crushed its NASCAR picks last year, and find out.

Duel at Daytona 1:

Brad Keselowski 3-1
Kevin Harvick 9-2
Kyle Busch 7-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 8-1
Jimmie Johnson 9-1
Martin Truex Jr. 9-1
Paul Menard 9-1
Daniel Suarez 10-1
William Byron 20-1

Duel at Daytona 2:

Joey Logano 7-2
Denny Hamlin 9-2
Ryan Blaney 6-1
Chase Elliott 6-1
Clint Bowyer 7-1
Aric Almirola 7-1
Kurt Busch 8-1
Erik Jones 15-1
Austin Dillon 15-1

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