FireKeepers Casino 400 odds, top picks 2019: NASCAR model says Ryan Blaney surprises at Michigan

The 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 made it through a portion of the pace laps at Michigan International Speedway on Sunday, but rain ultimately kept the green flag from going down. The race has been rescheduled for 5 p.m. ET on Monday afternoon. Kevin Harvick, who finished in the top two in both races at Michigan in 2018 and qualified in the No. 3 spot, is the favorite in the latest 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds at 4-1, followed closely by Kyle Busch at 5-1. Joey Logano, who claimed the pole position, is going off with Brad Keselowski at 7-1. Aric Almirola, who will start in second, is one of the biggest movers in the NASCAR at Michigan odds, as he's fallen from 30-1 all the way to 16-1. With drivers scrambling to adjust to the new race time and plenty of intriguing value picks on the board, be sure to see the NASCAR at Michigan predictions from SportsLine's projection model before making any 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 picks of your own. 

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account. 

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It also called Kyle Busch's huge win at Bristol last month. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's win at Pocono last week. 

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Michigan International Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated the 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Michigan 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Ryan Blaney, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off at 20-1 NASCAR at Michigan odds. 

The Penske Championship Racing driver, who will start in 13th, enters this race in the top 10 in the Monster Energy Cup Standings with 406 points. Every start will be critical for him going forward as he looks to fortify his 2019 NASCAR playoff positioning.

He hasn't finished in the top 10 since Bristol in April, but he's extremely comfortable racing at Michigan, where he finished fifth in the August race last year and eighth in this event in 2018. He also had a top-five run at Michigan in 2016. Additionally, he finished fifth at Fontana this year, a two-mile track with plenty of similarities to Michigan. He has all the tools to end up at or near the top of the 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 leaderboard come Monday evening.

And a massive shocker: Harvick, the Vegas favorites at 4-1, doesn't even crack the top 5. Oddsmakers may be overvaluing Harvick after he won eight races last year. He's yet to win in 2019, and has just one top-10 finish in his last five events coming into Michigan. He settled for a disappointing 22nd-place performance at Pocono last week, and the model indicates that there are far better values to win it all in a loaded NASCAR at Michigan field this weekend. 

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2019 NASCAR at Michigan odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest NASCAR odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard for the 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kevin Harvick 4-1

Kyle Busch 5-1

Brad Keselowski 7-1

Joey Logano 7-1

Chase Elliott 10-1

Clint Bowyer 10-1

Martin Truex Jr. 12-1

Aric Almirola 16-1

Kyle Larson 20-1

Denny Hamlin 20-1

Ryan Blaney 20-1

Erik Jones 25-1

Kurt Busch 25-1

Alex Bowman 30-1

Daniel Suarez 30-1

Jimmie Johnson 40-1

William Byron 50-1

Austin Dillon 50-1

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